February 2025

A FRAGILE PEACE

A fragile peace

Dark clouds now loom over the recent disengagement along the LAC, which was projected as a thaw in China-India ties. Amit Agnihotri reports.

Two controversial decisions by China – to build the world’s largest dam in the Tibet region and create two new counties in the Hotan prefecture in Ladakh –threaten to cast a long shadow over the thaw which the Asian Dragon has claimed in its relations with India, following five years in the cold.

China used this tentative thaw to project a ray of positivity around its relationship with India, which had plummeted to its lowest level following Beijing’s deliberate violation of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, the de facto border, in April 2020, and the subsequent killing of 20 Indian soldiers by People’s Liberation Army troops in the June 15 Galwan Valley clashes that same year. 

In reality, the thaw, which included de-escalation along the LAC, has been very much open to interpretation by geopolitics watchers. A large number of troops from both sides continues to be deployed on the Indo-China border, and concerns remain in New Delhi over India’s limited patrolling rights across several boundary segments.

Yarlung_Tsangpo_map
STARTING POINT: The Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, where building of the proposed dam would begin

Developments regarding China’s proposed, and controversial, mega-dam in Tibet took place months after the LAC de-escalation agreement. The resulting friction could undermine any perceived diplomatic gains from the border peace pact.

The reason is that the dam has raised both ecological and geopolitical concerns for China’s neighbours, India and Bangladesh, where millions are likely to be displaced as a result. Not only this, but the ambitious hydro-power project could also damage the rich bio-diversity of the Tibetan Plateau. Furthermore, it is planned for construction in a high seismic zone prone to earthquakes.

The proposed dam would be built across the lower reaches of the river known as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, which then flows southwards through northeast Indian states including Arunachal Pradesh as the River Siang and Assam as the Brahmaputra River. Further downstream, the river is known as Jamuna in Bangladesh, before it merges into the Bay of Bengal.

Set to cost around $137 billion and generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, the mega-dam is surely a way for China to project its superpower status and secure its energy needs. It is also expected to play a major role in meeting Beijing’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, stimulate related industries such as engineering, and create jobs in Tibet.

India strongly registered its protest over the new dam

The world’s largest existing dam, known as the Three Gorges Dam in central China, generates roughly 88.2 billion kWh of electricity annually and has courted controversy over its potential to impact the Earth’s rotation. The dam had displaced around 1.5 million people in China. Given that the proposed structure across the Yarlung Tsangpo River is three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam, its impact is bound to be huge.

India strongly registered its protest over the new dam. saying it will ‘keep an eye on developments’ and ‘take all necessary steps to protect its interests’.

Strangely, Beijing hasnot been very vocal on the impact aspect, other than to say that the new dam will not cause any damage to the environment or affect the lower riparian countries. Yet there are fears in India and Bangladesh that it could worsen the effects of climate change and lead to large-scale agricultural losses, which could bring about further deterioration in their ties with China.

The Tibetan Plateau used to be a vast geographical buffer for India before the region was forcibly annexed by Beijing in 1950

For India, Tibet serves a vital strategic objective. The plateau used to be a vast geographical buffer for India before the region was forcibly annexed by Beijing in 1950. In 1959, thousands of Tibetans, including their spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, then 23, took refuge in India after a failed uprising against the Chinese invasion. India ignored China’s reservations over the refugees and allowed the Tibetans to set up a government in exile in Dharamsala in Himachal Pradesh.

Today, India is home to around 80,000 Tibetans while over 1.5 lakh members of the community are spread across the US and Europe. Although India recognised Tibet as part of China in 2003, New Delhi deliberately allowed the Dalai Lama to visit Tawang in the border state of Arunachal Pradesh several times in the past, and in a way rejected Beijing’s false claims over the territory.

Three Gorges Dam in central China
The world’s largest existing dam, the Three Gorges Dam in central China

During the peak of the LAC face-off in eastern Ladakh with China in 2020, New Delhi carefully deployed the Special Frontier Force, raised entirely from Tibetan refugees, to make a point. India and China fought a war in 1962 over the border issue and have been, ever since, locked in tough negotiations to resolve a festering border row, including land takeover by Beijing in the Aksai Chin area.

The border row is a legacy of the decisions taken during British rule in the subcontinent. But the issue has remained unresolved despite decades of diplomacy between New Delhi and Beijing.

As for the two new counties in the Hotan prefecture in China announced recently, this appeared to be a direct affront to the normalisation of relations claimed by Beijing since October 2024. The two counties are part of a deceptive border villages scheme that China has been pursuing along the LAC over the past years. The villages serve a civilian purpose on paper but can also be used to meet military objectives, if needed.   

New Delhi was obviously displeased, telling China that ‘creation of new counties will neither have a bearing on India’s long-standing and consistent position regarding its sovereignty over the area nor lend legitimacy to China’s illegal and forcible occupation of the same’.

The fact is that the Asian Dragon has a history of making such provocative claims on Indian territory. In 2017, China released the initial list of ‘standardised’ names for six locations in Arunachal Pradesh, the bordering Indian state. In 2021, Beijing released a second list, comprising 15 places, with another list featuring the names of 11 additional places released in 2023. India rejected the claims in the strongest terms.

While New Delhi is keen to have good relations with all its neighbours, the trust deficit with China is huge. Any fresh provocations will only deepen the divide. The key question is whether China has got the message right.

Amit Agnihotri is a Delhi-based journalist who has worked with several national newspapers and focuses on politics and policy issues