Defending Europe
Defending Europe
As NATO allies agree to hike their defence spending to become less dependent on the US, Amit Agnihotri, considers how Europe is coping with this shift in global strategic dynamics
In the post-Ukraine war period, marked by a dismantling of the world order, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) learned its security lessons the hard way. But it has now started working on a solution.
Alarmed by Russia’s renewed aggression, followingits February 2022 invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, which threw all international norms out of the window, and having realised that US President Trump’s inward-focused foreign policy might no longer offer guarantees of Europe’s long-term security, NATO members decided to increase their defence spending significantly, from 2 percent of their national gross domestic product to 5 percent by 2035.
This financial decision, taken during the June 25 NATO Summit in The Hague, was loaded with political messaging, not only for Trump but also for Russia and the international community.
The move affirmed that NATO members were serious about the long-term security of Europe and were prepared to chart a more independent, less US-dependent path towards countering the Russian threat.
For decades, ever since World War II, Europe had felt secure under the NATO security blanket provided by the economically more powerful United States. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlighted the need for a new security architecture for Europe.
As the US and NATO-backed Ukrainian resistance extended beyond the initial few months, the financial cost of countering Moscow began to pinch both Washington and the European Union.
America, which had already been forced to withdraw from its longest ever war in Afghanistan after spending trillions of dollars, was compelled to look for cost-cutting options to the massive aid that was flowing towards Ukraine. Estimates set US spending on Ukraine at $130bn since 2022, while Europe gave away $165bn.
It was Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden who oversaw the return of American troops from Afghanistan in 2021, in a move that was criticised by US allies and which paved the way for the return of the hardline Taliban.
Since World War II, Europe had felt secure under the NATO security blanket
According to estimates, the primary costs of the Afghanistan war, exceeding $2.3 trillion from 2001 to 2022, went towards military operations and reconstruction efforts. Further, over $296 billion were allocated for the lifetime care and medical needs of US veterans of the conflict, while billions in interest were paid on loans taken to finance the war.
From the start of his second term as president, Trump has been trying hard to end the Ukraine war by bringing Moscow and Kyiv to the negotiating table. Alongside diplomacy, he has also goaded NATO members to shore up their defence budgets to meet future security challenges, even as the US shifted its focus towards countering China in the strategic Indo-pacific and to retain American dominance in volatile West Asia.
During his first tenure, Trump had considered pulling out of the Atlantic alliance to push his ‘America first’ policy. An anxious Europe got the hint and came together in 2025 to showcase its unity.
Trump has been trying to end the war by bringing Moscow and Kyiv to the negotiating table
Previously, in 2014, NATO members had agreed to commit 2 percent of their national GDP to defence spending, to ensure the alliance’s continued military readiness. The move came in response to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and amid broader instability in West Asia.
However, the 2 percent target was reached only by 2024, with defence budgets in most European countries growing significantly over the past decade. Poland became the 15th largest defence spender globally in 2024, up from 20th place in 2022, while Spain lagged behind.
This sum was huge as the European allies and Canada invested a combined total of more than $485 billion on defence in 2024. Yet it was still only half of the $968 billion the US spent alone.
In contrast, Russia’s total military expenditure grew by 41.9 percent to reach around $145.9bn in 2024. Compare this with Ukraine’s $50bn defence budget – one third of Moscow’s.
As part of the 2014 Wales Defence Investment Pledge, NATO members had also agreed that at least 20 percent of their defence expenditures should be devoted to spending on major equipment, including associated research and development.
This metric was perceived as a crucial indicator for the scale and pace of modernisation. Where expenditures failed to meet the 20 percent guideline, there was an increasing risk of equipment becoming obsolete, growing capability and interoperability gaps among allies, and a weakening of the defence industrial and technological base.
The 5 percent of GDP target set in 2025 will be realised by 2035. Out of that 5 percent, around 3.5 percent will be spent on core defence capabilities, including troops and weapons, and 1.5 percent on boosting infrastructure, including cybersecurity and resilience building. The trajectory and balance of spending will be reviewed in 2029, when the US will elect a new president.
Given that the Atlantic alliance was forged by the US to secure Europe against the USSR after World War II, it is noteworthy that, in 2025, the Soviet Union’s successor Russia is again the reason why NATO took the landmark decision to boost its defence spendings significantly.
Ironically, the Ukraine war was linked to the US’ and NATO’s desire to expand further eastwards in Europe, something which would have taken Western firepower to Russia’s doorstep and sounded alarm bells within the Kremlin.
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 mainly to stop its smaller neighbour from becoming a member of NATO at the behest of the US. Soon after, the US, along with NATO members, started helping Ukraine to counter the Russian aggression.
In the process, much of NATO’s weapons stockpile was depleted and needed to be refurbished to meet future challenges. Over the past months, there has been a growing concern within NATO that Russia could attack Europe within the next few years, particularly the vulnerable Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as Moscow has been busy producing hundreds of tanks every year, along with millions of ammunitions for artillery guns and a large number of drones.
As per estimates, Russia produced as much ammunition in three months as all of NATO did in a year. This had to be countered effectively.
For his part, Trump has been desperately trying to end the Ukraine war, but in vain. His Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin wanted to sign a peace pact only on his terms, which included retaining the Ukrainian territory annexed during the war and also Crimea, taken earlier in 2014. Putin also wanted an assurance from the West that Kyiv will never join NATO in the future.
Against this backdrop, NATO allies reaffirmed their enduring sovereign commitments to provide support to Ukraine and noted that Kyiv’s security contributed to theirs.The NATO members further noted they were united in the face of profound security threats and challenges, in particular the long-term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security and the persistent threat of terrorism.
They dubbed the trans-Atlantic alliance as the strongest in history, and reiterated their iron-clad commitment to collective defence as enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty – that an attack on one was an attack on all.
The coming years will test Europe’s resolve.
Amit Agnihotri is a Delhi-based journalist who has worked with several national newspapers and focuses on politics and policy issues