THE TRUMP TEMPEST
The Trump tempest
Rather than embracing a more inward-focused foreign policy, as expected, Trump’s second presidential stint looks set to reinforce America’s global influence. Amit Agnihotri reports.
American president Donald Trump’s second term began with an inward-looking regime defined by the slogan ‘Make America Great Again’.But his initial foreign policy plans seem to have given way tothe goal of reiterating and reinforcing Washington’s influence throughout the world.
Those decisions, including tariff wars on China, Canada and Mexico, coupled with the threat of reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners, revived fears of global trade wars in a world sharply divided after the Ukraine and the Gaza wars, which have upset the international geopolitical order.
If that was not enough, the American president’s bizarre suggestion to end the Gaza war by the US taking ownership of the area and converting it into a West Asian Riviera sent shock waves across the world, and rightly invited rebuke.
Further, Trump’s move to demand rare metals from Kyiv in exchange for continued US military support to Ukraine raised eyebrows among America’s friends and foes alike.
The tariff wars unleashed by Trump were part of his election promises and aimed to rattle main adversary China and push neighbours Canada and Mexico into negotiations which would serve larger American interests and address concerns related to illegal immigration and supplies of the opioid fentanyl.
Such calculations proved right, as Mexico has agreed to send around 10,000 troops to man its border with America, an issue that is close to Trump’s heart. Canada, too, has started working on the problems, and has been lobbying with the new administration to work out a deal.
The reaction of China, which hit back with its own sanctions on American products, was along expected lines. But the Asian Dragon quickly noted that peace between Washington and Beijing, rather than confrontation, is in the global interest.
Soon after being re-elected to high office, President Trump began building a team of anti-China hawks. However, his strong views against Beijing were actually a legacy of his first term. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth all fall into this category.
While the tariffs and his likely stance on China were already known, Trump’s most shocking foreign policy move related to Gaza.
He had promised to find ways to end the bloody conflict, which could soon engulf all of West Asia. But worldwide shock followed his suggestion to convert Gaza and the West Bank into a riviera, which implied moving the Palestinians away from the area. Theidea apparently came with the tacit approval of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who sat beside the US president when he dropped the bombshell.
While the Gaza plan unsurprisingly invited international censure, it underlined the fact that America’s West Asia policy, which has remained anchored in full support for old ally Israel for decades, would continue seamlessly across two ideologically opposite administrations, those of Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump.
Mexico has agreed to send around 10,000 troops to man its border with America
Furthermore, the move to demand rare earth minerals from Kyiv revealed the transactional aspect of America’s once ideological war against Cold War rival Russia, which angered the West by invading its neighbour Ukraine in February 2022.
During his campaign, Trump had assured Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky that he would do everything possible to end the war, if he was elected as US president. But his move since taking office revealed the hidden agenda behind keeping the Eurasian conflict alive. This led Kyiv to reject a proposal on exploration of rare earths when a US delegation arrived there to do business.
For his part, Trump did speak with both Russian president Vladimir Putin and the Ukrainian leaderabout how to end the war in Ukraine.But his reaching out to the Kremlin directly irked Kyiv and Europe, who felt they had been bypassed in the process.
China quickly noted that peace between Washington and Beijing is in the global interest
Kyiv fears it may be forced to cede territories under Russian occupation, whilst gettingno security guarantees in the event of any future attack. Also, the US was non-committal vis-à-vis Ukraine’s demand for NATO membership, which triggered the war in the first place, and instead asked the North Atlantic alliance members to shore up their defence expenditures.
Trump has tried to play the peacenik in Ukraine to convey a message that America’s main focus is on countering China in the Indo-Pacific. But it is common knowledge that, irrespective of which administration is in power, American foreign policy will never be centred around a single country, as Washington prefers to have its finger in as many geopolitical pies as possible.
Soon after the oath-taking was over, Trump started rolling out his foreign policy preferences, indicated by the order in which dignitaries met him in the White House. First was Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, followed by Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba, King of Jordan Abdullah II bin al Hussein, and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi.
With Ishiba, Trump discussed ways to avoid a takeover of American steel giant US Steel by Nippon Steel, and got the Japanese premier to commit $1 trillion worth of investments in the world’s largest economy.
The US president’s discussions with the King of Jordan involved plans to settle the displaced Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank in the neighbouring country. But Abdullah did not buy the proposal, sensing it would make his position untenable and also dent broader Arab unity in West Asia.
Trump discussed the sale of high-tech F35 fighter jets with Mr Modi but before the Indian premier met him, he made it clear that America’s reciprocal tariffs were meant to boost US textile exports and would not spare even Washington’s Quad ally if it raised tax on the import of garments.
The US has been displeased over India’s strategic autonomy, which has allowed the South Asian major to deepen ties with both America and Russia in the wake of the Ukraine war.
In another move to retain global influence, Trump reiterated his threat to BRICS, saying the grouping was dead and would face 100 percent tariffs if it made any move to destabilise the American dollar. The threat referred to the BRICS attempt to float a common currency as a counter to the dollar, which has ruled international trade since World War II and provided Washington with much-needed economic muscle for a superpower.
Here again, slamming BRICS meant taking on both China and India. Yet in practice, the US deals with these two Asian nations differently. On one hand, Washington brands China as its main adversary, while continuing to negotiate with the Asian Dragon. On the other, America often criticises India but at the same time keeps this strategic ally close by to counter Chinawithin Asia.
Amit Agnihotri is a Delhi-based journalist who has worked with several national newspapers and focuses on politics and policy issues