August 2024

FINDING FRIENDS

Finding friends

Is the recent Moscow-Pyongyang defence pact an attempt by Russia to sideline its ally China, wonders  Amit Agnihotri, or part of awider nexus that seeks to challenge US domination?

The mutual defence deal signed on June 19 this year by Russia and North Korea during President Putin’s first visit to the ‘Hermit Kingdom’ in 24 years marks a key geopolitical shift that has aroused both interest and suspicion among global watchers, who are trying to determine its likely impact in the long term.

Across the spectrum of strategic thinkers, some view the pact as an attempt by Russia to overlook its longtime friend and ally China, which has superpower ambitions, while others see it as North Korea’s attempt to move out of China’s shadow. A third view is that the deal is an extension of the China-Russia axis, aiming towards the broader China-Russia-North Korea-Iran nexus that seeks to challenge global US hegemony.

Whatever the truth might be, the coming together of these two nuclear-armed nations has rattled world powers. 

The erstwhile Soviet Union, the precursor state to the Russian Federation, was the first to back and recognise North Korea 75 years ago, during the Cold War era. Hence, the latest deal looks like an attempt by both Moscow and Pyongyang to renew those bonds amid global turbulence.

On the face of it, the mutual defence pact provides an opportunity for both Russia and North Korea – who have been ostracised by the West for their aggression in Ukraine and in the Korean Peninsula, respectively, as well as for violating United Nations Security Council resolutions – to show they are not without friends.

President Putin and Kim Jong-un during Putin’s June 19 visit to Pyongyang
GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT: The June 19 visit to Pyongyang was President Putin’s first to the ‘Hermit Kingdom’ in 24 years

As per the pact, either country can rush in troops to help the other in the eventuality of the partner facing any military aggression from a third party. This means that Russia could help North Korea militarily if Pyongyang were to face belligerence from the US-South Korea-Japan alliance in the nearfuture.

Reciprocally, the deal will also pave the way for Pyongyang to officially supply artillery shells to help Moscow replenish its ammunition stocks, hugely depleted because of the Ukraine war.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, both Washington and Kyiv have alleged that North Korea was supplying artillery shells to the aggressor.But the charge has been denied by both Moscow and Pyongyang.

The coming together of these two nuclear-armed nations has rattled world powers

For the West, which has armed east European ally Ukraine to the teeth in order to defeat Russia at any cost, the recent defence deal has aroused suspicion that Moscow may do the same in the Korean Peninsula, where the US-South Korea-Japan alignment has been trying to counter the China-North Korea axis.

The timing of the pact is also important: it was announced just weeks after the summit between Russian President Vladmir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signalled a ‘new era’ in their ‘no limits’ friendship.

In fact, the deal had been in the works since September 2023, when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un travelled in an armoured train to meet Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia’s far east. During the meeting, Putin and Kim described each other as ‘comrades’ and dropped sufficient hints that they had discussed military and space cooperation in detail.

Putin’s June visit to Pyongyang may now lead to the arming of North Korea. Moreover, Putin extending a helping hand to Kim Jong-un has further complicated matters, as South Korea now seems open to supplying weapons to war-torn Ukraine.

South Korea now seems open to supplying weapons to war-torn Ukraine

What is intriguing for the West is that all this while, China has not reacted to the Russia-North Korea defence deal, saying it is a matter between two autonomous countries.

‘The cooperation between Russia and the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] is a matter between two sovereign states. We do not have information on the relevant matter,’said Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

Nevertheless, Beijing might well be quietly concerned over the move by Kim, who has been a long-term ally.

One reason behind China’s silence could be that the Asian Dragon has been targeting the US for its building of anti-Beijing blocs such as the Quad and AUKUS over the past years. Yet this latest move by two of its allies, Russia and North Korea, amounts to a similar activity against Washington.

Another reason might be that China is less ostracised and more financially integrated with US allies in Europe, and with nations in Central and South East Asia, than Russia and North Korea.

Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian called the Russia-DPRK deal ‘a matter between two sovereign states’

Furthermore, the thought that the Moscow-Pyongyang defence deal might lead to a nuclear weapons race between nuclear-armed North Korea and South Korea, which has no such weapons, might also be troubling China.

Already, the UN Security Council has imposed sanctions on North Korea to try to stop its nuclear weapons program,even as Putin has announced that Russia will develop a new class of intermediate range nuclear weapons and may deploy them to target NATO countries.

While the nuclear weapons angle to the Russia-North Korea pact is certainly a concern for the West and its European allies, a much bigger challenge for them could be the China-Russia-North Korea-Iran axis, aimed at countering global US hegemony.

The coming together of these four anti-US nations could help Putin project the Eurasian conflict as a power tussle between the West and the new formation, rather than simply being a Russia versus Ukraine war.

Although the contours of the four-nation axis have not been officially firmed up as a bloc, some kind of cooperation already exists between them. China signed a multi-billion dollar deal with Iran in 2021 to gain a foothold in the strategic West Asian region and followed it up with an attempt to broker peace between Iran and US ally Saudi Arabia to expand its influence.

For its part, Iran has provided drones to Russia for use in Ukraine. Further, Tehran continues to support militant groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah andthe Houthis in West Asia, with a view to weakening US influence in the region. As for China, it has become Russia’s top trading partner and the Putin-Xi bonhomie has caused much anxiety in Washington.

The recent nuclear deterrence guidelines agreement between the US and South Korea, which faces a direct threat from North Korea, was an obvious fallout of the Moscow-Pyongyang defence deal.

It would be prudent to assume, then, that more such moves by the West to secure its global strategic interests are bound to follow.

Amit Agnihotri is a Delhi-based journalist who has worked with several national newspapers and focuses on politics and policy issues