January 2025

FROM RUBBLE TO RESILIENCE

From rubble to resilience

Tanya Vatsa assesses the aftershocks following the ouster of Syria’s longtime dictator, as well as its national and regional repercussions

The democratic wave that swept the Middle East and North Africa during the early 2010s did not decisively achieve its purpose in most countries. The Arab Spring, which marked the populist uprising in 2010, began in Tunisia before spreading across the region, which was largely governed by authoritarian leaders.

Syria was no exception, having been governed by the Assad family’s Ba’ath party since the 1970 coup. Hafez Al-Assad was succeeded by his son Bashar al-Assad (hereafter referred to as Assad) in 2000, and it was under his presidency in 2011 that the Syrian civil war commenced. Assad’s administration crushed the rebellion with violent brutality. Damascus has since been conflict-ridden, with many warring factions fighting against the government and among themselves. The brutal clamp-down by the Syrian military led to branching out of civilian and rebel groups, pushing the country deep into turmoil.

With armed factions divided along sectarian, religious and political grounds, the conflict has always been complex, and the situation became more so as support came in from regional and global powers. Some of the dominant groups included the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), The US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces [(SDF) Kurdish militia] and the former Al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS). Assad’s forces were backed by Russia and Iran’s Shi’at clan.

Pic of Bashar al-Assad
TAKING FLIGHT: On December 8 2024, Bashar al-Assad fled the country as Damascus fell to HTS

On December 8 2024, Assad fled the country as Damascus fell to HTS. He has sought refuge in Moscow. Now, with an absconded President and several rebel groups contesting for power, is the civil war finally over? And is this the beginning of Syria’s quest for stability?

An intriguing aspect of the decade old crisis is the persistence of Assad’s forces, despite them being confronted by several rebel groups at the same time. This can be attributed to multiple factors. The factions fighting for Syria’s freedom were neither cohesive nor cooperative in their approach: the Turkish-backed SNA has been at odds with the US-backed SDF, given Turkey’s vehement opposition to Kurds, who have been held responsible for insurgencies by Ankara and labelled as terrorists. The HTS, initially known as the Al-Nusra Front, was an affiliate of Al-Qaeda. Later in 2016 it severed ties with that group and gradually merged with others to form the HTS.

The factions fighting for Syria’s freedom were neither cohesive nor cooperative in their approach

However, despite its intention to gain local legitimacy and acceptance, HTS follows a hardline Salafist-Jihadist ideology. It has emerged as the primary rebel group to sweep across most significant Syrian cities including Idlib, Aleppo and Damascus.

The thwarting of Syrian government forces can also be directly attributed to the two ongoing wars involving Assad’s staunch supporters. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has endured for almost three years now, engaging most of Russia’s resources andthus limiting its military support to the Assad forces. This has been compounded by the Israel-Hamas conflict, wherein Iran-backed Hezbollah has been a prominent force against TelAviv. Hezbollah’s contribution to the perpetuation of Assad’s regime has been unparalleled and its preoccupation with the Gazan unrest dealt a severe blow to the Syrian government’s military capacity.

Hezbollah’s contribution to the perpetuation of Assad’s regime has been unparalleled

After Bashar Al-Assad fled Syria, there were revelations of gross human rights violations under his regime, including labour camps, military prisons and mass graves. There are multiple reports of missing civilians, evidence of the use of toxic chemicals against the Syrian people, aggravated sexual assault and torture. Syrians across the world were seen celebrating their liberation from the dictatorial regime of the Assad family. Yet this was not the first exposure of the regime’s brutality. In 2022, the Higher Regional Court in Koblenz, Germany, convicted former Syrian intelligence officer Anwar Raslan for crimes against humanity including torture, murder and rape of detainees at an infamous military intelligence facility in Damascus (Branch 251). The trial exposed the barbarism of the regime.

Given the current political scenario unfolding in Syria, the HTS has emerged as the strongest political contender with the largest territorial foothold. The group relies on the local population for its funding. It generates income by taxing people and collecting custom fees at trade routes and border crossings. The Turkish SNA seems to have friendly affiliations with HTS and they share their distaste for the SDF. This has been evident by HTS’s takeover of Manjib, a former Kurdish strong-hold.

Years of conflict, oppression and polarisation have prevented the development of independent national institutions in Syria, hindering impartial governance by political entities. HTS, with its prior affiliation with Al-Qaeda and its inherent Salafist-Jihadist ideology, might become a sectarian theocratic government. The quest for democracy may or may not materialise but with the backlash against the Syrian Kurdish forces, it will become very difficult to contain ISIS militants and affiliates. Thus, Syria risks becoming the breeding ground for terrorism again, unless checked by its governing forces. The spillover effects threaten neighbouring countries like Israel and Jordan and, while Turkey stands to benefit from the regime change, Russia and Iran are adversely impacted. With the loss of an ally, Moscow might lose the strength of its footing in West Asia. For Tehran, losing an ally in Syria pushes it further over the edge in a Sunni-dominated region, making it difficult to support Hezbollah in Lebanon. Additionally, a friendly Syria was an anchor in Tehran’s war against Israel, which might consequently suffer.

Pic of HTS forces with
HTS follows a hardline Salafist-Jihadist ideology

Fear of a resurgence of terrorism must be sufficient incentive for global powers, especially the US, to assist in the establishment of a new government, its empowerment and its integration with international protocols. The challenges before HTS and its allies are multifaceted. Syria lies at the epicentre of a very turbulent region which has witnessed years of political upheaval. Another ideologically motivated government might commit historical fallacies unless they are able to heed the need for an inclusive, forward-looking administration.

A glaring obstacle is the re-building of trust among the Syrian people, who are disillusioned after decades of suppression. Syria’s people must be the primary driving force in rebuilding the nation and all sects and ethnicities must be able to secure representation in the ruling party. Moreover, the country requires funds for infrastructure and institutions, and the masses require peace and resilience as they gather the broken pieces and reassemble their hopes for freedom.

Tanya Vatsa is currently the Geopolitical and Predictive Intelligence specialist at Inquest Advisories in India, as well as Editor at the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Dept of Defence, United States of America. She completed her Master’s in Legal Studies at the University of Edinburgh after obtaining a law degree from Lucknow’s National Law University, India