HANDSHAKE IN THE HIMALAYAS
Handshake in the Himalayas
China has been pushing to stabilise its relationship with India but, writes Amit Agnihotri, despite some progress, a wary New Delhi is adopting a tough stance.
In a deft move, South Asia major India has rebuffed China’s deceptive peace overtures and reminded the Asian Dragon that normalisation of bilateral relations will be possible only after complete disengagement at the border in eastern Ladakh.
The conflict in the Himalayas started in May 2020 when People’s Liberation Army troops deliberately violated the Line of Actual Control, the de-facto border between the two countries, to provoke India.
The spat soon turned into a full-blown crisis, with Chinese forces killing 20 Indian army soldiers in a bloody clash at the Galwan Valley on the fateful night of June 15 that year. The Asian Dragon also lost an unspecified number of soldiers in the clashes.
That single incident plunged India-China relations to such low levels that a full recovery has not been possible to date, despite several rounds of talks between senior military commanders and diplomats of both sides.
Why? The reason is that, while China attended the peace talks – held under the structural arrangement Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs to defuse border tensions – at the same time, Beijing was keeping the pot boiling through heavy militarisation of the LAC. This included deploying more troops and upgrading border infrastructure, indicating that the Asian Dragon was in no mood to revert to the status quo ante.
China did all this as part of a plan which allowed it to use excess funds available due to steady economic growth to keep the border row festering and force its South Asian rival to buckle under resource crunch.
However, India’s unexpected move to match troop deployment along the LAC was the first clear signal that New Delhi was not prepared to back off in the conflict zone, and was ready for a long haul, if needed.
Over the past few years, changing geopolitical equations, in the form of diversion of US attention towards the raging wars in Ukraine and Gaza, coupled with China’s domestic woes in the shape of economic slowdown and deepening India-Russia relations, has forced Beijing to start talking peace – though with a forked tongue.
Beijing has been keeping the pot boiling through heavy militarisation of the LAC
In recent weeks, China has held secret negotiations with Indian officials, pushing New Delhi for a quick peace deal, which it could showcase to the world to project the status of a global power that prefers conflict resolution through dialogue, rather than going to war as Russia did with Ukraine.
Following this year’sSeptember 12 meeting between Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in St Petersburg, Russia, on the sidelines of a conclave of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)high-ranking officials responsible for security matters, Beijing blithely announced that over the past years, front-line armies of the two countries had realised disengagement in four areas in the Western sector of the China-India border, including the Galwan Valley.
The border situation was generally ‘stable and under control’, proclaimed China. Yet around the same time, India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar noted in Geneva, and then again in New York, that while 75 per cent of the ‘disengagement problems’ with China had been resolved, the bigger issue had been the increasing militarization of the 3,500km-long LAC.
Changing geopolitical equations have forced China to start talking peace – though with a forked tongue
Addressing an event hosted by the Asia Society and Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, Jaishankar stressed the need for a ‘multipolar’ Asia,highlighting that India needed to patrol all the points along the LAC and adding that continuing troop deployment was a problem. He also noted that beyond the ‘disengagement’ of troops at the border, the larger issue was how to manage other bilateral ties with China.
At present, Indian forces are reportedly unable to access 26 of 65 patrolling points, stretching from theKarakoram Pass to Chumar, because the earlier disengagements led to the creation of new buffer zones, giving an edge to China, which kept raising new demands during the peace talks.
Further, China continues to block two key areas, Depsang and the Charding-Ninglung Nala, which will only delay any disengagement. The winter season settling in will also require extra efforts by India to boost its defence forces along the border with China.
However, on October 21 and 22, India and China created a buzz as they confirmed having reached an agreement. While Beijing used the term ‘relevant matters’, New Delhi interpreted the pact as relating to patrolling along the LAC in eastern Ladakh. Neither side shared any details of the pact, which was hailed as a breakthrough by global watchers.
The breakthrough came before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia to attend the BRICS Summit, which began on October 22 in the southwestern Russian city of Kazan. The buzz was that Modi and Chinese president Xi Jinping would meet during the summit to signal an easing of the border row.
Like external affairs minister Jaishankar, Indian Army chief Gen. Upendra Dwivedi reacted to the breakthrough with caution, saying the main focus was to ‘restore trust’ between the two armies, and that ‘disengagement and de-escalation’ would have to be pursued diligently by both the sides.
Over the past six months, the Asian Dragon’s economic woes had been growing and may have played a role in the recent peace pact. Since March, China’s growth fell below the 5 percent target, adding to concerns over a property crisis, a flagging stock market and weak consumer and business confidence.
This was the second such slowdown since 2021 and if it were to continue till the end of the year, it could push the Chinese economy into a recession. While this would certainly impact the global economy, given China’s economic ties with ASEAN and Central Asian nations, the slowdown would also have a negative effect on Beijing’s dream of replacing the US as the world’s largest economy.
Due to this realisation, the People’s Bank of China last month announced the country’s biggest stimulus package since the Covid pandemic, which included large cuts in interest and mortgage rates as ways to encourage banks to lend more.
For its part, besides adopting a tough posture over the LAC row, India went ahead in improving relations with breakaway Chinese province Taiwan and welcomed the tiny island’s third representative office in financial capital Mumbai, ignoring Beijing’s usual ‘One China’ rant.
The Himalayan handshake was welcome. But how China ultimately walks the talk will be a key determinant of total peace on the border.
Amit Agnihotri is a Delhi-based journalist who has worked with several national newspapers and focuses on politics and policy issues