November 2024

SURVIVAL OR DOWNFALL?

Survival or downfall?

A panel of experts gathered to debate whether Pakistan can continue to function under military control – or whether its powerful army could ultimately be its undoing

Most of Pakistan’s institutions have weakened in relation to the military, the country is considered by the West as being (for all the wrong reasons) ‘too important to fail’, and its very existence is founded on the erroneous notion that religion can be the basis of a modern nation state. These were among views expressed by a panel of experts at an October virtual seminar hosted by The Democracy Forum, which posed the central question,‘Can Pakistan survive without military control?’

Opening the discussion, TDF President Lord Bruce spoke of the huge challenge Pakistan faces in attempting to protect its democratic institutions from military interference, in a society where ‘the army rules without governing’. He highlighted the military ‘stage-management’ of the February 8th general election, which returned a coalition government under Shehbaz Sharif, but also the defiant and unexpected surge of support for independent candidates affiliated to the PTI, the political movement led by the incarcerated Imran Khan. Giving a potted history of how Pakistan has been subject to some degree of military interference since its creation in 1947 – including rule by military-bureaucratic oligarchy for 11 years and by military government under a civilian president for 16 years – Lord Bruce  noted that not one of the country’s 31 elected prime ministers has served a full term.

Over the past 12 months Pakistan’s distinctive system of establishmentarian democracy has come under severe strain, he added, with political analysts suggesting that the February 8th election results are likely to exacerbate Pakistan’s persistent political instability, which is primarily a 0 result of the military’s repeated interventions.  At the heart of this political crisis lies the deep personal enmity between General Asim Munir, chief of the army staff, and Imran Khan, a feud dating from June 2019 when Munir was sacked by Khan as director general of the ISI. Imprisoned since August 2023, Khan is currently facing the prospect of being tried by a military court. There is growing evidence, said Lord Bruce, that the military is threatening judicial independence and integrity, with a majority of High Court judges, in March, taking the unprecedented step of writing to the Supreme Court accusing the ISI of interfering in judicial proceedings. In June the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention found that Imran Khan is unlawfully detained, and a recent appeal was lodged with the UN Special Rapporteur on Judges and Lawyers on behalf of Khan concerning the proposed 26th Amendment to the Constitution – a fundamental attack on judicial independence that, among other measures, intends to remove all civilian oversight of military and security services. Citing an observation by the executive director of pollster Gallup Pakistan, that ‘Pakistan’s future (is) likely to be decided not by elections or public opinion, but by who (wins) the power battle between the military and Khan’, as ‘one side has the ability to bring the public out, the other… to bring the arms out’, Lord Bruce concluded that more violence seems inevitable, because the army fears that if it cedes control of politics it will forfeit its economic privilege.

tdf oct seminar pakistan military1
FIGHTING TALK: Panellists TDF’S Oct. 21 webinar discuss Pakistan’s military

To what she termed a provocative title, author and political scientist Dr Ayesha Siddiqa gave an equally provocative answer: that she believed Pakistan could not survive without military control, at least not the Pakistan that has evolved, in which most other institutions, from the judiciary to civil bureaucracy, have weakened in relation to the military. With much domestic conflict, the only response to keeping the state together is through the military maintaining its power, and Dr Siddiqa wondered whether there could be a Pakistan without military control, and if it would survive without the kind of power structure that has evolved. The Pakistan military has evolved not as an instrument of policy for any civilian leadership, but rather ithas grabbed power and built on it. Itsengagement with society has militarised the political class itself, which is a huge part of the problem, as this militarised political class has always given preference to national security over development and has consistently surrendered control of any intervention in terms of controlling the military. All major parties in Pakistan have been created or helped to power by the military, although from 2008, there has been a shift in the military’s political game as it decided to withdraw from the idea of control of state and move towards control of governance. This has given them a permanent foothold in politics.

The army’s engagement with society has militarised the political class itself

Regarding the notion of hybrid government, Siddiqa saw that hybridity in Pakistan means not only military influence in politics but the army’s control over strategic decision-making. Nawaz Sharif’s 2013 creation of the Special Investment Decision Council led to the military having much more strategic control of everyday governance, with the generals given an equal role with parliament re. political and economic decision-making. Where the military’s expansion of control and weakening of the state-society relationship is most evident, she argued, is in the war on terror, which has reduced political and expanded military influence over the years. The results of military intervention in, for example, Balochistan and Sindh – where it uses force and repression – are a lack of effectiveness of the state, meaning there is no longer any faith in the state itself. Thus they are ineffective in counter-terrorism, eg the police in KP have been protesting against military intervention, as whenever the police try to catch terror outfits such as the Taliban and the TTP, there is always a link with the army. So, the present state will not survive without military control, Siddiqa concluded, even though such control has ultimately weakened the state.

The Pakistan army has almost never proved to be an honest broker.

Turning the central seminar question on its head, Dr Farzana Shaikh. Associate Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House, wondered if, in fact, Pakistan could survive with army control. The country that emerged as Pakistan in 1947 failed to survive in 1971, when its army was clearly in control. Nevertheless, despite all evidence to the contrary, the claim that the Pakistan military is the only institution capable of resisting centrifugal forces still resonates today, at home and abroad, which is all the more curious against the backdrop of the intense political and constitutional crisis that has roiled Pakistan since 2022, for which many hold the army responsible, and which may have fatally damaged the institution. One can see signs of internal cohesion eroded and demoralisation, so the army is not exactly in healthy form for a force touted as a bulwark against the formidable challenges facing Pakistan. Among those most directly confronting the army is the ethno-nationalist insurgency in Balochistan, where disaffection at the inequitable distribution of natural resources has reached boiling point. Its momentum has been shaped by social and political shifts so far-reaching that the army is struggling to keep pace. With its characteristic aversion to dialogue with those it calls ‘foreign agents’, it has resorted to indiscriminate and heavy-handed tactics that will add more fuel to the fire of potential Baloch separatism.

Pakistan was born out of an idea that has neither resonance in history, nor validity today: that religion can be the basis of a modern nation state

Imran Khan
Former PM Imran Khan is facing the prospect of being tried by a military court

Two points might account for the enduring appeal of today’s topic, added Dr Shaikh: one, is the (mainly Western) fear of global meltdown without the army in control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, which are seen as being at risk of falling into the hands of religious extremists. (In short. Pakistan is viewed in Western corridors of power as ‘too important to fail’, for all the wrong reasons). This is a red herring, she believed, but one which ensures that the Pakistan army will continue to enjoy tacit Western support for its dominance over Pakistan’s national affairs. Secondly, the idea of the army as Pakistan’s ultimate guarantor has roots in the political classes’ complicity with the military, as they look to that institution as the arbiter best placed to settle their differences – despite the fact that the Pakistan army has almost never proved to be an honest broker. As long as Pakistan’spolitical parties choose to curry favour with the armed custodians of power overdialogue with each other, she concluded, the Army can hardly be blamed for claiming the mantleof guardianship over a state whose political governors have so signally failed toassume their responsibilities.

In order to understand Pakistan wenormally try and analyse it from its birth. Yet, argued author &journalist MJ Akbar,it might be equallyuseful to try and understand the country from the basis of its death in1971. Pakistan’s problem as a state is that it was born out of an idea that has neither resonance in history, nor validity in a conventional and contemporary age: that religion can be the basis of a modern nation state. If Islam or Christianity for example, could be sufficient as the basis for a nation state, why would there be 22 Arab countries, or separate European nations? Nationalism has to have a very different set of impulses, ideas and rationales to hold people together; indeed, the notion that Islam could be the basis of a nation state collapsed when the majority of Muslims of the original Pakistan walked away and recreated themselves through common linguistic ethnicity – a far more valid form of cohesion. This problem behind the idea of Pakistan has led to the country becoming a ‘toxic jelly state’, continuing to quiver and toxic due to its nuclear and military capabilities, and Islamic fundamentalism running through its political veins. It is thus unable to provide stability either for its own people or for the region. On the question of Pakistan and India, and why they cannot become friends, Akbar argued that they first need to become good neighbours, and you cannot become a good neighbour if you keep exporting terrorism in the name of one fictitious rational or another. The subcontinent, therefore, will remain in a state of turmoil, despite the best intentions of at least some of the governments, since governments become beholden to the ideology of the state of which they are put in charge.

Like his fellow speakers, Akbar alluded to quasi-separatist movements or tendencies in Balochistan and Sindh, which will need to be resolved, not by external factors, but by Pakistanis themselves trying to understand and come to terms with the mistake that was made in the early days of the country’s existence, during the creation of Bangladesh. The concept that continually troubles both Pakistan and its neighbourhood is whether any particular institution where power resides in the power of the gun can hold a people together. At best, this is a temporary solution, said Akbar; in modern times, you can hold a geography together by the power of the gun, but you cannot hold a people together. We are seeing that every institution in Pakistan, including the judiciary, is becoming a political player struggling for its own quota of power within the state. Religion as a basis of Pakistan is really the problem, and therefore the army comes in as the guarantor of an idea that does not work (unlike, for example, India, which is held together because of the idea behind India). The consequences are that the army acquires as much of the economy as it possibly can, which then limits the benefits of that section of the economy to its own members, causing great disparities. A geography can survive with army control, concluded Akbar, but a state cannot survive; it becomes dysfunctional, and when astate becomes dysfunctional, confidence in that state begins to collapse and then wither. That’s what we are seeing at this momentin Pakistan.

MJ Akbar is the author of several books, including Doolally Sahib and the Black Zamindar: Racism and Revenge in the British Raj, and Gandhi: A Life in Three Campaigns

To watch the full discussion, tune in to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6e5BbZp7rtc