October 2024

A TANGLED WEB OF RELATIONSHIPS

A tangled web of relationships

At The Democracy Forum’s latest debate, panellists assessed the impact of Bangladesh’s nascent revolution on the region, particularly Dhaka’s dealings with its neighbours

Regional challenges facing Bangladesh’s interim government and the need for a reset in Dhaka’s relations with neighbours such as New Delhi and Western powers were among the themes discussed at The Democracy Forum’s September panel debate, held in the wake of the country’s violent domestic upheaval and the resignation of Sheikh Hasina, triggering a crisis that has significant implications for both Bangladesh and the wider region.

The sudden flight of Sheikh Hasina into exile has opened a new era of political and economic uncertainty for Bangladesh, said TDF President Lord Bruce, and exposed the tangled web of relationships her regime has forged with foreign powers, most notably India, China and the US. This will inevitably have a consequential impact on South Asia. Lord Bruce referenced the allegations of foreign interference in Bangladesh’s politics by external actors that have been widely circulating in recent months, including Russian claims that if Sheikh Hasina succeeded in winning the 7 January election, the US would attempt to overthrow her government ‘along the lines of the Arab Spring’. An undelivered speech purportedly written by Hasina at the time of the coup that deposed her made further allegations that the US was seeking to destabilise her country; although these were subsequently dismissed by the White House.

If the United States has indicated a preferred political path for Bangladesh to follow, added Lord Bruce, it has always stated unambiguously that this should be democratic. It is, in fact, India’s foreign policy that has been most shaken by the fall of Sheikh Hasina, as there is little doubt that the erstwhile leader became a lynchpin of Narendra Modi’s strategy to bolster economic ties and connectivity in response to proliferating Chinese influence. With Bangladesh in a geopolitical quagmire under the interim government of Muhammad Yunus, and the hub for regional and great power rivalries, Lord Bruce concluded that ongoing India-China competition for hegemony in South Asia will fundamentally alter the regional balance of power if the new Bangladesh tilts one way or the other. 

TDF seminar participants
Panellists at TDF’s Sept. 18 webinar

Dr M. Niaz Asadullah, Visiting Professor of Economics at the University of Reading and Professorial Fellow at North South University, Bangladesh, pointed to how, unlike in neighbouring Sri Lanka, the recent political collapse in Bangladesh was not triggered by economic meltdown. Indeed, under Sheikh Hasina Bangladesh became a model of rapid economic growth, coupled with political stability. So the recent uprising, occurring in a booming economy, has offered a broader lesson to countries in South and also Southeast Asia that there are social limits to economic growth in the 21st century, as over the past two decades we have seen what he called a ‘global recession in democracy’, even in many fast-growing Asian economies. At the same time the pursuit of growth under autocracy today faces social constraints in ways that did not apply to Asian ‘miracle’ economies in the late 20th century, especially those of Southeast Asia. An example is Malaysia, where the United Malayan National Party was voted out of power, despite delivering an economic miracle. Such political collapse, even during times of economic prosperity, will become more of a paradox in years to come, predicted Asadullah, as broken social contracts no longer go unpunished by the people. This is especially true in countries with a large youth demographic (most notably Generation Z), among whom there is a growing mismatch between rising aspirations and actual achievements. Increased social and digital connectivity increases this risk of widespread political protest.

Unlike in neighbouring Sri Lanka, Bangladesh’s recent political collapse was not triggered by economic meltdown

Asadullah compared Bangladesh politically with other South Asian democracies – for example, he highlighted how the quality of India’s institutions makes it stand out as the only country in South Asia where people trust elections, as compared to, say, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, where people have no faith in corrupt state institutions. He also addressed how authoritarian regimes such as Cambodia and Vietnam fulfil social contracts with their people through, for example, economic prosperity, in exchange for fewer political freedoms, whereas the people of Bangladesh felt their government failed them on both counts. Regardless of regime type, concluded Nasadullah, governments should respect the social contract they have with their electorate, for growth alone may not be enough to maintain political stability in the absence of negative freedoms.

Considering some new features of the recent mass uprising, its spillover effectsfor regional countries and the potential impact on Bangladesh’s external relations with its neighbours was Professor Rounaq Jahan, an author and Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, Bangladesh. While it is still too early to assess the full effects, Jahan saw the most significant impact of the revolution on Bangladesh’s internal politics as having opened up space for rebuilding democracy and good governance. What is new about this, considering Bangladesh has seen many uprisings in the past, is that the students are not simply talking about bringing back free elections but about real structural reforms, so that no future elected government would be able to rule in an autocratic manner. The students have initiated a new conversation regarding aspirations for a democratic and more inclusive politics that works across political divides. This may resonate with students of other countries in the region, said Jahan, so it has the potential to improve the quality of democracy in South Asia as a whole. All revolutions have challenges, of course, including fear of counter-revolution and splinter groups, and the need to balance change with stability, but she was hopeful due to the character of ordinary Bangladeshis.

India’s security concerns have been impacted by Sheikh Hasina’s departure

Regarding Bangladesh’s relations with its regional neighbours following the political shifts, Jahan highlighted Sheikh Hasina’s long cordiality with India under both Congress and the BJP, balanced by an opening up and expansion of economic ties with China. The interim government has expressed a desire for continuing good relations with New Delhi, though perhaps now with Bangladesh scrutinising its own benefits from new, improved bilateral relations with India. She also underscored that Dhaka would like to see a revival of regional associations such as SAARC an ASEAN, as well as a stronger, more direct relationship with the US.

Terming this ‘Monsoon revolution’ a ‘second freedom’ for Bangladeshi students, Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue and a former Professor at the University of Dhaka, said it was linked to Bangladesh’s first independence in 1971, but there was also talk of a rupture with the past. Most of today’s youth – the masses and students – have seen only autocracy, not free and fair elections, and a curbing of freedom of speech, eg the Cyber Security Act. So they have sought freedom from autocracy, as well as more economic gains such as good jobs and greater wealth equality. Constitutional reform and state reformation is also desired across broader society, and this will continue to be a major issue for the people of Bangladesh.

IN EXILE: Bangladesh’s former leader Sheikh Hasina

From a regional perspective, Rahman wondered how Bangladesh would situate itself in the region. He underscored how the country should aim for greater equality with India, and try to lessen overreliance on New Delhi. Nevertheless, it must not be forgotten, he added, that India is a key trading partner of Bangladesh, its second largest, and so its importance cannot be underestimated. Indeed, there is a mutually dependent relationship between the two in trading terms. So, he concluded, some reality checks will be needed going forward, to bring about a more accommodating, inclusive and democratic society, and a nation with healthy regional relationships.

Addressing the role of women in the movement, Dr Tazreena Sajjad, Senior Professorial Lecturer at the School of International Service, American University in Washington DC, began by challenging the notion of ‘revolution’, for as the interim administration has emerged, the language of revolution has transformed into the language of reform, which is important, since language, she argued, sets the parameters of possibility. Regarding the specific types of reform Bangladesh needs for its transition, Sajjad added to the significance of economic and electoral reform judicial reform, which is crucial, she said, to ensure demands for anti-discrimination elements, given the structural barriers that exist for Bangladeshis based on ethnicity, gender, etc.

Who is the audience for the political development that have been happening in Bangladesh? she asked. Major powers such as the US, of course, vis-à-vis its history and Indo-Pacific strategy; China, and India, given how India’s security concerns have been impacted by Sheikh Hasina’s departure; as well as various Arab states, where migrant Bangladeshi workers are invested in what happens back home. But two other tiers of the audience are the youth – eg how they see their history, how they engage with questions of political freedom, digital literacy, etc – and women, whose mobilisation in Bangladesh dates back a long way, for example re. women’s safety in public spaces. Although there are women in the interim government, six new commissions that have come into being since the uprising are all headed by men, which highlights women’s structural invisibility in Bangladesh.

MJ Akbar is the author of several books, including Doolally Sahib and the Black Zamindar: Racism and Revenge in the British Raj, and Gandhi: A Life in Three Campaigns

To watch the full discussion, tune in to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6e5BbZp7rtc