CAUGHT BETWEEN THE DEVIL AND THE DEEP SEA
Caught between the devil and the deep sea
Yvonne Gill evaluates the tough challenges Iran’s new moderate president faces as he attempts to steer a course that will satisfy the Iranian people, the country’s hardliners, and foreign powers
Even as he struck a conciliatory note in his first address to the UN General Assembly, Iran’s new moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian was jolted by the fresh airstrikes carried out by Israel in Dahieh, Hezbollah’s stronghold in the Lebanese capital. The bombings, like the ones targeting leaders of the organisation over recent months, killed, among others, Ibrahim Muhammad Qubaisi, also known as Abu Issa, the commander of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile division.
Hezbollah said it had retaliated by firing rockets at several military targets in Israel, including an explosives factory about 56km into Israel and the Megiddo airfield near the town of Afula
Reacting to the Israeli strikes against Hezbollah, a militant group that was founded with Iranian help in 1983, Pezeshkian feared this could lead to a larger regional conflagration. He added that Hezbollah ‘cannot stand alone’ against Israel.
A day earlier, addressing the UN General Assembly, he had said Iran wants to hold more talks with the West and other global powers on its nuclear programme and UN sanctions. However, he was unequivocally scathing in his criticism of Israel. Calling for a ceasefire, he said ‘genocide’ was being perpetrated in Gaza. After returning to Tehran, he told reporters that ‘the Zionist regime and its supporters are the biggest terrorists’, labelling Israeli military action as ‘genocide’, ’atrocities’, ‘crimes against humanity’, and ‘desperate barbarism’ in Gaza and Lebanon.
Since his election in July this year, Pezeshkian has literally been battling on several fronts: the conservative clergy-dominated establishments at home; an escalating conflict in the region; and the diplomatic challenges that his heavily-sanctioned country faces.
Unlike most of his predecessors, he is the first Kurdish-Azeri leader of Iran, a country where ethnic minorities have historically suffered discrimination and marginalisation. A renowned cardiac surgeon till he took to politics, Pezeshkian is an outsider in the Shia cleric-dominated military-security establishment that rules the country.
His surprise victory against a conservative rival, Saeed Jalili, by more than three million votes indicated a potential shift in Iran’s political dynamics, which is steeped in religious politics. Beginning his political career under reformist President Mohammad Khatami, Pezeshkian served as deputy Health Minister and later as Health Minister until 2005. Known for transparency in governance, he would often speak critically of government policies.
His ethnic heritage and educational background make it easier for him to address and bridge the ethnic divide, fostering a more tolerant domestic environment. And his voters also expect him to be more inclusive in governance, initiate the much-needed reforms, and allow social dissent.
Although he is seen as a moderate figure aiming to implement reforms such as easing internet restrictions and potentially relaxing mandatory hijab laws and creating a more conducive environment for civil liberties, there is widespread scepticism because of the resistance he would face from orthodox clergy.
The President’s compromise was to include both reformist and hardline elements in his cabinet
The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, retains ultimate authority over major state decisions, including military and foreign policy. While Pezeshkian has indicated a willingness to pursue reforms within the framework set by Khamenei, any substantial changes will likely face resistance from conservative factions who dominate key institutions.
The approval of Pezeshkian’s entire cabinet by the parliament was a surprise. It is the first time since 2001 that a President has managed to get his cabinet approved. Pezeshkian achieved this by performing a delicate balancing act, much to the chagrin of his reformist supporters. The compromise was to include both reformist and hardline elements in his cabinet. While he was not able to give adequate representation to women and minorities, his cabinet includes experienced officials, such as foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, who previously had played a key role in negotiations with the West over sanctions and the nuclear deal.
Despite a long spell of religious indoctrination of the common people, the rising aspirations for reform clearly indicate that the social dynamics of Iranian society are ripe for change. However, the climate of conflict in the region may give the orthodoxy an opportunity to gain the upper hand.
Pent-up nationalistic fervour may soon force Pezeshkian to play to the tune of the orthodoxy for his own survival
Iran has been biding its time since the assassination of Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. The Ayatollah and other top political and military officials have issued calls to avenge the assassination. They maintain that a ‘guest’ dear to Iran, and its ‘Axis of Resistance’ was killed on Iranian soil.
Now that Israel is bombing Lebanon, its civilians and infrastructure with its devastating firepower to punish Hezbollah, an important part of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance, the security establishment of Iran, may not be happy with the flexibility and strategic patience being displayed by the liberal President. The pent-up nationalistic fervour may soon force Pezeshkian to play to the tune of the orthodoxy for his own survival and wrap up his reformist agenda, which anyway has not yet taken off.
With the US halfway into the war, Pezeshkian’s desire for improved relations with the West and potential engagement in nuclear negotiations, signalling a shift from the more confrontational stance of his predecessors, may also come to naught.
Iran’s support for groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon could intensify in response to Israel’s actions, leading to further proxy conflicts in the region. This could draw in other regional powers and the US, heightening the risk of a broader war.
In summary, while Pezeshkian’s criticisms of Israel reflect Iran’s longstanding support for the Palestinian cause, they also carry the potential for escalating tensions, complicating his efforts to engage with the West, and provoking a military response from Israel.
Navigating these challenges will be crucial for Pezeshkian as he seeks to chart a new course for Iran’s foreign policy and bring about some reforms in the country. Otherwise, democracy will remain a dream for the majority of Iranians who have to obey fatwas of Mullahs who seek to reduce normal humans to irrational zombies living in an open prison, killing their desires and free will – thanks to the all-powerful Ayatollah.
Yvonne Gill is a freelance journalist based in London