September 2024

CORE STRENGTH FROM THE CENTRE

Core strength from the centre

Panellists at a recent Democracy Forum seminar discussed the potential pros and cons of Iran’s new reformist president

Leading from the centre, extricating the economy from the military and freeing up society were some of the positive actions Iran’s new reformist president could implement to take the country in a new direction, according to participantsinThe Democracy Forum’slatest debate, ‘What Iran’s new reformist president will mean for the country, the region and beyond’.

While the snap election of Masoud Pezeshkian in early July was widely regarded in the West as a positive direction for Iran, said TDF president Lord Bruce, the election process did, in fact, engage less than half of the electorate. Pezeshkian has taken office at a critical time for Iran, added Lord Bruce, as it attempts to recalibrate its foreign relations and extricate its economy from a punishing sanctions regime, while resisting pressure to escalate conflict with Israel. Lord Bruce highlighted the underlying message of Pezeshkian’s election campaign, which referred to the urgent need to reopen negotiations with the US in order to dismantle the economic straitjacket imposed by sanctions. Pezeshkian’s stated aim to build a government of national unity was recently endorsed by the Iranian parliament, and the president went as far as confirming the input of the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard in the appointment of 19 ministers to his cabinet, saying he had ‘compromised’ on ‘certain ideals’ because ‘unity is more important’.

tdf aug 2024 webinar
Panellists at TDF’s August 28 webinar on Iran

But any hope regarding diplomatic room for manoeuvre, which Pezeshkian may have counted on prior to his election, has been shattered by the assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on 31st July, while on an official visit to Tehran. The critical issue for Iran’s leadership now is to resist provocation, avoid retaliation and tumbling into a trap set by the Netanyahu government, which, warned a former Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, ‘will do all [it] can to drag the region into a bloody fight’. Lord Bruce then gave the floor over to the panel, as he looked forward to hearing their views on how Pezeshkian’s leadership will introduce the reforms necessary to shape civil society in Iran, while responding to the alarming escalation of tension in the region and avoid the risk of wider conflict.

Asking the key questions ‘Is Pezeshkian really reformist?’ and ‘Can he achieve his goal of reformism?’ was Dr Saeid Golkar, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, who considered the Pezeshkian government’s relations with other power blocs in Iran, including the IRGC and the Supreme Leader. Since 2019, the Islamic Republic of Iran has shifted from a more hybrid authoritarian regime to a more personalistic system, where power is concentrated in the Ayatollah’s hands. Its elected body, including the parliament and presidency, combines with bodies such as the armed forces, judiciary and Supreme the Leader, which are not elected directly by the people. Yet most authoritarian regimes still have elections, Golkar noted, which create the illusion of democracy domestically, and legitimise the regime in the eyes of the international community.

Any hope regarding diplomatic room for manoeuvre has been shattered by the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on 31st July

Reform has different meanings, he added: for some, it is changing ideological direction, for others it is fixing corruption. Golkar highlighted what he saw as Pezeshkian’s honesty, in that he has said he won’t change any policies but will simply implement the Supreme Leader’s policies, thus makingthe existing system more efficient. Pezeshkian wants to empower the Islamic Republic, believing that ‘if the Supreme Leader’s policies are implemented, people will be satisfied with the Islamic State’. Golkar also referred to Pezeshkian’s desire to remedy the ‘dummification’ of the state, which had replaced experienced technocrats with young indoctrinated ideologues. Pezeshkian hopes the older generation will remedy this ‘dummification’ but, said Golkar, institutional stagnation is intensified by the interference of Ayatollah Khomeini, who micromanages things, to the extent of ideological selection of state employees.So, while ‘dummification’ might slow down under Pezeshkian, power will remain concentrated in the hands of ideological institutions, including the Revolutionary Guard, which are anti-American and anti-Israel. If Pezeshkian wants to win the support of ordinary Iranians, who seek normal lives, he will lose the support of these powerful institutions, and vice-versa.

As Iranian militias have crept closer to Israel’s borders, Iran has become engaged in a war of attrition with Israel

For Dr Shirin Saeidi, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of The King Fahd Center for Middle East Studies, University of Arkansas, the main focus was on women’s agency during the recent election and what the election of Pezeshkian means in this regard, and for the country, region, and the international system. What do we mean by reformist gains vis-à-vis Iran? she wondered.The goal is not violent overthrow but rather a nonviolent approach and civil resistance, as was witnessed by the poor turnout at the polls. Change requires negotiation, she cautioned, so Pezeshkian wisely looks as though he will remain in the centre, resisting more radical voices.

Saeidi also addressed the tension within the Iranian state, and between the state and society, while on the issue of gender, she said the Islamic Republic has always had to catch up with female demands, who have demanded justice and freedom for all. She highlighted Pezeshkian’s appointmentof a woman as minister of transportation and urban development, adding that having women at high levels of government makes a difference to the advancement of women overall, regardless of the type of government. With Pezeshkian refusing to collaborate with radical elements of the reformist movement and trying to engage with conservatives and those who did not vote, he is taking on the tough task of bringing together a divided nation and fragmented state, making Saedi hopeful that politics and negotiation can bring about change.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini
MICROMANAGEMENT: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini

Ambassador Sir John Jenkins, Senior Fellow at Policy Exchange and Joint Strand Leader at the Middle East, Centre for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge, examined the regional dynamics impacting Iran, particularly Saudi Arabia, the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Jordan and Israel. When we think of Iran in the region, we think of Levant and the Gulf, said Sir John, andthe relationship between Iran and the Gulf has always been uneasy, given the threats of Shia subversion. One of the things that has conditioned the recent period of tension is the more acute nature of the Israel-Palestine conflict. In addition, the Gulf states look to Syria, Iraq and Lebanon and see subsidiaries of the IRGC, which promotes Iranian policies in those countries. Then there is the issue of the Houthis in Yemen, a direct threat to the Saudi heartland. The Gulf states have tried to dial down these tensions because they have no real means to deal with a hostile Iran, which is intent on undermining their security.

The Gulf states don’t want to be part of the current Israel-Iran conflict, something Sir John called a ‘three body problem’. He also addressed Israel’s thoughts on the issue, which he saw not as about the Palestinians but about Iran. As Iranian militias have crept closer to Israel’s borders, Iran has become engaged in a war of attrition with Israel, who can slow this down but not stop it, at least not alone. Iranian foreign policy has been consistent – they don’t need to attack Israel directly, they just want the Israeli state to self-destruct and cease to exist. This offers an interesting conundrum for the US administration, said Sir John: it needs to pressurise Israel to allow settlement of the Gaze conflict, but at the same time make it clear to Iran that this is not a weakening of US support for Israel in general. This sense that US interest in the Middle East and support for Israel, and for the Gulf States, has been weakening hasled the Gulf States to distance themselves slightly from the US, which in in itself weakens the US position.

Exploring the prospects for US and European relations with Iran under Pezeshkian’s presidency, and the viability of successful negotiations on nuclear issues and other disputes, was Dr Sina Toossi, Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Center for International Policy. Iran does have contentious politics, including on foreign policy issues, and in this context, Toossi drew attention to how Pezeshkian had campaigned on a diplomacy ticket, eg the importance of getting sanctions lifted, and defending the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCOPA). Indeed, Pezeshkian advocated the need for Iran to have more balanced foreign relations, saying it cannot develop the way it needs to if it continues to have such hostile relations with the West. It must foster more competitive and balanced foreign relationships, with not too much reliance on China and Russia.

Toossi pointed to a current consensus shaping within Iran towards giving the Pezeshkian administration and its belief in diplomacy with the West a chance – although the Ayatollah has given his backing to engage with the enemy but not to trust them. Toossi cautioned that Pezeshkian will have to contend with many different power centres in Iran – eg the IRGC – but this doesn’t mean that he will be powerless on foreign policy. Pezeshkian will be key to trying to get new a nuclear deal, for example, and, even as the new foreign minister said the JCPOA is dead in its original form, that deal could be a reference point for a rewritten deal, in line with the current geopolitical situation. In terms of diplomatic de-escalation before the US election, the IAEA could do something, such as making frozen Iranian assets available for humanitarian funds. So, concluded Toossi, there is potential for reviving de-escalatory agreements with the West.

MJ Akbar is the author of several books, including Doolally Sahib and the Black Zamindar: Racism and Revenge in the British Raj, and Gandhi: A Life in Three Campaigns

To watch the full discussion, tune in to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6e5BbZp7rtc