September 2024

DHAKA’S TRYST WITH DESTINY

Dhaka’s tryst with destiny

Tanya Vatsa charts the public resentment – and alleged foreign influences – that led to the downfall of Bangladesh’s long-serving leader

The major shift in geopolitics in the 21st century is marked by its pivot towards the Asia-Pacific, recalibrated by the Trump administration as the Indo-Pacific. The regional significance resonated in the composition of a large number of political/economic/military multilateral action-oriented initiatives, inclusive of, but not limited to, the Asia Rebalancing Strategy, Belt and Road Initiative, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and Trilateral Security Pact.

At the heart of these lies Bangladesh, with its strategic location at the head of the Bay of Bengal forming the gateway between South and South East Asia. Dhaka had been exceptional in its consistent economic growth, being hailed as one of the fastest growing economies globally and one of the few countries to register a positive growth rate during Covid. Concerns had, however, been raised regarding the undisclosed financial mismatches by the government and the consistent turmoil due to political stand-offs between the ruling Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. While the Awami League’s Sheikh Hasina has been credited with effecting Bangladesh’s economic turnaround during her 15-year rule, she has also been criticised for her largely dictatorial approach towards political governance.

Bangladesh army chief Waker-uz-Zaman
Bangladeshi army chief Waker-uz-Zaman refused military support to the Hasina regime

Mass protests have long been a hallmark of Bangladesh’s political atmosphere and any show of discontent has historically been suppressed by Ms Hasina with an iron fist. Ironically, it was one such recent protest that led to the longtime leader’s ousting from office and her homeland, and marked the end of her political career.

A decision by the High Court to revive the abolished system of reserving a quota of government jobs for the offspring of freedom fighters sparked a nationwide protest by students and aspiring civil servants. This quota system for well-paying civil service jobs in Dhaka was initiated by Bangladesh’s founding father, Mujibur Rehman, post-independence in 1971. According to the system, 56 per cent of posts were reserved under various categories, leaving only 44 per cent to be filled by candidates chosen on merit.

A severe backlash against a 30 per cent quota led to its abolition by Sheikh Hasina in 2018. So its revival was met with a similar resistance, which gradually blew out of proportion, given the excessive clamp-down by government forces. The mass protest was met with riot police and paramilitary troops. Internet shutdowns and severe repression further fuelled the fire, igniting nationwide demonstrations. Hasina’s government declared the protesters ‘anti-nationals’, calling them ‘Razakars’, an offensive term used to denote those who betrayed Bangladesh during the 1971 Liberation War.

Bangladesh was hailed as one of the fastest growing economies globally

The simmering discontent stemmed from violent suppression of genuine student concerns. The demand was to eliminate quotas reserved particularly for the offspring of freedom fighters; it did not target necessary quotas for ethnic minorities and people with disabilities. The original reservation of civil service posts, fuelled by popular sentiment at the time of Bangladesh’s liberation, had now become part of an archaic system of selection which deprived deserving candidates of top administrative jobs. The students were simply protesting that which they considered a hindrance to modernising the process of selection. They alleged that the Awami League’s student wing, the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), was armed and constantly attacked peaceful protesters. The disproportionate confrontations and blatant disregard for the voices of Bangladesh’s youth did not bode well for future of the country.

With over 400 civilians reported dead and the protests intensifying, the refusal of army chief Waker-uz-Zaman to provide military support to the Hasina regime’s suppression of mass sentiment sealed the fate of the former prime minister. Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled hours before people routed her residence on August 5. She has sought refuge in neighboring India.

The interim government has been formed under Nobel prize winner Muhammad Yunus, who has promised free and fair general elections and reinstitution of democracy in the country.

Prima facie, it appears that the authoritarian rule of Ms Hasina has run its course in Bangladesh, especially as the underlying economic cracks had become visible when Dhaka sought financial bail-out packages from the bretton wood institutions. Her political heavy-handedness was severely criticised by Mr Yunus, who blamed Ms Hasina for the destruction of national institutions and the erosion of democracy.

The US’s strategic interests in Bangladesh are no secret

Of course, the chances of socially provocative elements planted by the opposition having aided the escalation of the situation cannot be ruled out. In addition to the constant political rivalry between contesting domestic parties, Ms Hasina alleges there was involvement of foreign interests in the toppling of her government.

She has claimed that ‘a certain country’offered her trouble-free victory in the January elections if she allowed the construction of a military base in Bangladeshi territory. According to Ms Hasina’s statements,as a daughter of the soil, she would not sell the strategic reins of her nation to retain power.

It is a curious case of coincidence that the United States’ interests in St Martin’s Island did not materialise and, around the same time, Bangladesh witnessed a sudden regime change after 15 years of steady governance. The US’s strategic interests in Bangladesh are no secret, given its intent to expand its influence in the Indo-Pacific (of which the Bay of Bengal is an integral part); nor is its historic tactic of effecting chaotic regime change anything new.

Muhammad_Yunus
POLITICAL PLEDGE: Muhammad Yunus has promised the reinstitution of democracy in Bangladesh

Yet, despite Ms Hasina’s claims, the US has denied any involvement in the events in Bangladesh. It will, however, not hurt Washington to have a more cooperative government in a country sitting at the head of the Bay of Bengal.

The breakneck speed at which the events in Dhaka have unfurled has left the world bemused and alarmed at the same time. This political uncertainty feeds into the ongoing narrative of distrust and suspicion.

For Dhaka, the revival of democracy will be the first step towards stability. With the Bangladesh Nationalist party already showing signs of infighting and internal corruption, the road ahead appears challenging. The need for a new foreign policy, especially regarding relations with immediate neighbors such as India and China, warrants urgent political unanimity. With India providing asylum to Ms Hasina, it remains to be seen what becomes of diplomatic relations between the two nations when a new government is formed. The greatest challenges before the incoming government are twofold: to restore people’s faith in Bangladesh’s political leadership and to protect the country from geopolitical dominance by retaining its strategic autonomy. Both will require a firm, fair and stable leadership at the centre.

Tanya Vatsa is currently the Geopolitical and Predictive Intelligence specialist at Inquest Advisories in India, as well as Editor at the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Dept of Defence, United States of America. She completed her Master’s in Legal Studies at the University of Edinburgh after obtaining a law degree from Lucknow’s National Law University, India