June 2024

DANCING WITH THE DRAGON

Dancing with the dragon

Following President Xi’s recent visits to France, Serbia and Hungary, and hosting of German Chancellor Scholz in Beijing, Tanya Vatsa assesses the future for Sino-European engagement

Lately, developments among the world’s nations have been far from predictable. Despite political hostility in various regions, increased economic dependence has led to the weaponisation of globalisation.

However, the pivotal national interest has now superseded the allure of alliances and given rise to a new discourse of geopolitical affiliations. With the United States’ adoption of ‘de-risking’ over ‘decoupling’ in its China strategy, it falls upon its European allies to either blindly adhere to the American way, or forge their own.

The recent European visits by Chinese President Xi Jinping and the reception of the German Chancellor in Beijing seem to have set the tone for further European engagement with the Asian dragon.

President Xi Jinping’s May visits to France, Hungary and Serbia were his first to Europe in five years. The timing appropriately coincided with the nations’ diplomatic anniversaries; the 60th anniversary of Franco-Sino ties and the 75th of Hungarian-Sino ties. The most remarkable timing, however, was that the placement of Serbia on the Chinese president’s roster coincided with the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during Serbia’s war against Kosovo. This may have also been symbolic of the global shift towards a multilateral power dynamic spear headed by Beijing.

– Macron’s invitation to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to join the talks with Xi was a commendable attempt at showcasing a united European front
Macron’s invitation to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to join the talks with Xi was a commendable attempt at showcasing a united European front

Macron’s warmth towards Xi surely had another motivation: his desire to obtain concessions from China regarding trade, and with respect to the Ukraine war. The EU’s massive trade deficit in China’s favour and Beijing’s electric vehicle subsidy – which threatens to thwart local players in the European market – were the major economic concerns. Macron also emphasised the need for China to curtail supplies to Moscow and to use its influence to halt the war in Ukraine.

Macron’s invitation to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to join the talks was a commendable attempt at showcasing a united European front, with the two holding discussions largely amenable to the European Union holistically. The bloc’s cohesion, however, warranted questioning when the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, did not show up in Paris, unlike his predecessor Angela Merkel, who had heeded a similar invitation by the French leader in 2019 while hosting President Xi in the French capital. This comes as a surprise, given that Scholz had met Xiin China the preceding month and was in Paris a few days before the scheduled meeting to meet Macron.

While France hopes to propagate Europe’s ‘strategic autonomy’, Germany seems to be adopting the ‘de-risking’ policy

The Sino-European meetings raise several questions regarding the stakes of all parties involved, considering that the European narratives are neither cohesive nor in unison. For instance, while France hopes to propagate Europe’s ‘strategic autonomy’, Germany seems to be adopting the ‘de-risking’ policy (as evident from its China strategy). Despite there being a difference, both policies recognise the significance of maintaining necessary and even cordial relations with China, almost according it a higher position than it had previously held in its European engagements. Apart from this being a covert admission of Chinese economic superiority, it also recognises Beijing’s military clout in the larger scheme of power polarisation.

Countries today will overlook older coalitions to secure their positions in the changing world order

Macron’s push towards strategic autonomy comes from his previous declaration that Europe is not meant to be America’s ‘vassal’ and must exercise its will to make beneficial economic and political alliances. For its part, Berlin understands the importance of necessary ties with Beijing and has hence chosen ‘derisking’ over ‘decoupling’ in its Chinese strategy (similar to the EU but with significantly greater economic exchange). Both these narratives favour Beijing’s intention to propagate a multipolar world, moving away from American hegemony and towards diversification of the power architecture.

Among the economic and strategic agendas discussed in Paris, Xi denied Chinese overcapacity in electric vehicles or green technology. For China, the visits come as it seeks to minimise the damage from European tariffs, which are likely to be introduced on Chinese goods flooding their markets, or to minimise the chances or impact of the EU’s anti-subsidy investigations into the electric vehicles.

In stark opposition to the European push against excessive Chinese investments, especially in critical infrastructure (as is the case of overwhelmed Lithuania), Chancellor Scholz approved the selling of stakes in the strategic Hamburg Port to a Chinese shipping company. The move was vehemently opposed by prominent ministers and seems to go blatantly against the diplomatic fabric of the European system, particularly when it comes to trading with Beijing, which has been criticised for its recent autocratic slide.

SERBIA-BELGRADE-XI JINPING-VUCIC-PRESS
Chinese President Xi Jinping with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić during the welcome ceremony in Belgrade

With regards to the Russian war in Ukraine, while Xi agreed that Beijing is in favour of peace talks, he gave no explicit hints as to how to facilitate such talks. In 2023, Macron visited Beijing with a similar agenda to try to get Xi to influence the Russian invasion and bring the war to an end. The meeting happened yet the war is still going on, suggesting that Beijing will not do anybody else’s bidding by leveraging its alliances.

It is amply clear that all parties are acting in their best interests and countries today will flagrantly overlook older coalitions to secure their positions in the changing world order. Consistent attempts by the respective European economies to keep Beijing engaged, undeterred by the European Union’s political reluctance and economic diminution, hints at proliferation of an individualistic approach. This does not necessarily signify rifts within the bloc but it is a covert acknowledgement of the end of American hegemony and the culmination of a multilateralism which had its inception at the turn of this century.

Tanya Vatsa is currently the Geopolitical and Predictive Intelligence specialist at Inquest Advisories in India, as well as Editor at the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Dept of Defence, United States of America. She completed her Master’s in Legal Studies at the University of Edinburgh after obtaining a law degree from Lucknow’s National Law University, India