WAR OR PEACE?
War Or Peace?
Could huge US aid packages for global hotspots – aimed at reasserting US dominance– foster peace, wonders Amit Agnihotri , or provoke further conflict in key world regions?
The US wants to be back in the great game and counter the emerging China-Russia axis through a massive $95 billion aid package for allies in geopolitical hotspots like Ukraine in Eurasia, Israel in West Asia and Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific.
But whether the move will provoke peace or war remains to be seen.
Out of the total $95 billion, $60 billion would go to Ukraine, $26 billion to Israel and $8 billion to the Indo-Pacific.
According to US strategists, more funds are needed for Kyiv to fend off Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and continues to occupy a significant part of its small neighbour’s territory.Moreover, Moscow appears to be in no mood to end the conflict.
The story is somewhat similar in Gaza, where a bloody war between Israel and the Hamas militia has been raging since October 2023.
While Washinton is keen to push peace in Gaza, where the killing of around 33,000 Palestinians since October has shocked the world, it is finding it difficult to discipline old ally Israel, whose military continues to take both the lives and land of the ‘enemy’ in the occupied areas.
As for the Indo-Pacific, aid is needed there as the US is trying to send a message that, despite its preoccupation with the conflicts in Eurasia and West Asia, Washington’s stance on anti-China grouping the Quad has not diluted. The US believes it must back the tiny island nation of Taiwan, which faces the threat of a Chinese invasion along the lines of the Russian aggression in Ukraine.
These two raging and one potential global hotspot have both direct and indirect links with China and Russia, who are trying to forge a common front to counter what they see as global US hegemony.
The conflict in Gaza has an indirect link with Russia via its ally Iran, which has vowed to take revenge on Israel, which, in turn, is being shielded by the US.
America does not like either an assertive Russia or a rising China but has different ways of dealing with these two powerful adversaries. Washington is happy to negotiate with China but not with Russia.
For that reason, the US and its EU allies have been pumping massive aid into Ukraine since 2022 to counter Russia. In light of this, questions have been raised within America as to whether the fresh tranche of weapons might help to curb the conflict in Kyiv, or indeed further prolong it.
As things stand today, the odds are heavily stacked against peace, since the cause of the Ukraine war can be traced back to decades-old US-Soviet rivalry. In the months preceding the war, the US and NATO were keen to induct Ukraine into the Atlantic alliance, while Russia was determined not to let that happen, as it would have allowed rival forces to reach right up to its doorstep.
Recently, after securing a fresh mandate for six years as Russian President, Vladimir Putin chose China as his first foreign destination in an attempt to deepen his ‘limitless friendship’ with President Xi Jinping and send a signal to US President Joe Biden. Ahead of the summit, Putin heaped praise on Beijing’s 12-point formula unveiled last year to establish peace in Ukraine to present China as a responsible global player, something Washington would never approve of.
Washington is happy to negotiate with China but not with Russia.
Inside the US, the passage of the massive $95 billion aid legislation was not smooth and the package could only be approved after months of debate among American lawmakers who discussed the pros and cons of the move.
At one point, the majority view seemed in favour of Moscow, which resulted in bouts of anxiety among the political leadership in Kyiv and the EU. In the end, America’s great power ambitions prevailed over reservations that some lawmakers had expressed regarding the fresh aid proposals.
According to some estimates, the US has approved aid worth $113 billion for Ukraine since 2022, ostensibly to deter a perceived Russian dictatorship from spilling over to other Eastern European nations and give the impression that America is still the protector of democracies worldwide.
In an election year, Biden does not want to alienate either Muslim voters or the strong Jewish lobby
A break-up of the $60 billion aid for Ukraine shows around $13.4 billion will be used to replenish US stockpiles, $13.9 billion for procurement of defence technology, $13.7 billion to buy additional defence material, $7.3 billion for the US operations in Europe and $26 billion for an oversight of the aid.
While the enemy lines are clear to US strategists in Ukraine, they become a bit blurred in West Asia, where Washinton is struggling to deal with ally Israel’s twin facets of being both victim and aggressor at the same time.
America has supported the Jewish nation, surrounded by hostile Arab countries, for decades, in order to retain its influence in the strategic West Asian region. Besides, the US needs Israel as a counterbalance to regional power Iran.
To add to Washington’s worries, China has gained a foothold in West Asia by becoming a friend of Iran, whose drones helped Russia target Ukrainian forces in the occupied territories.
Furthermore, domestic and international pressure is mounting on the US to bring Israel to the negotiating table vis-à-vis Hamas so that the worst-ever conflict in Gaza can be brought to an end.
Stern warnings by the Biden administration and tough measures such as blocking the supply of weapons and ammunition have failed to have an impact on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has vowed to wipe out Hamas completely and has refused to respond to US directives to halt military operations in Rafah.
In an election year, the US President does not want to lose the support of either Muslim voters or the strong Jewish lobby. At the same time, America is keen to arm Israel to fend off an aggressive Iran, which has vowed to punish Tel Aviv for its alleged genocide of innocent Palestinians in Gaza and Rafah.
Accordingly, the $26.4 billion US aid for Israel includes $4 billion for the Iron Dome and David’s Sling missile shields, $1.2 billion for Iron Beam, $3.5 billion in Foreign Military Financing, $4.4 billion to replenish US stocks, and $9 billion for humanitarian aid.
Likewise, the $8.1 billion aid for various Indo-Pacific security needs includes $3.3 billion for the submarine industrial base, $2 billion for support to Taiwan and $1.9 billion to replenish stocks given to Taiwan. Additionally, $1.9 billion will go for advanced procurement of the Columbia-class submarine and $200 million for advance procurement for the Virginia-class submarine to counter Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan’s outgoing foreign minister, Joseph Wu, summed up the situation pretty well when he noted that both China and Russia were helping each other expand their territorial reach and therefore democracies needed to push back against autocratic states.
The US couldnot agree more.
Amit Agnihotri is a Delhi-based journalist who has worked with several national newspapers and focuses on politics and policy issues