Escalation, aggression and the shadow of genocide
Escalation, aggression and the shadow of genocide
Yvonne Gill assesses events past and present that have led to the dangerously spiralling situation in the Middle East
The Middle East sits on the edge of a precipice. The long-simmering tensions between Israel and Iran have turned into a direct military conflict, one of the most dangerous escalations in decades. Israel’s Operation Rising Lion launched with the air raids on Iran’s nuclear facilities and assassination of several top Iranian military officers and scientistsin precision strikes on June 13. Now, with the US targeting three underground Iranian nuclear sites with massive bunker-bursting bombs on June 22, the war is threatening to spiral out of control.
These Israeli air raids were an extension of its protracted and destructive military operation in Gaza, where its genocidal campaign against the civilian Palestinian population has cast a shadow of deathly gloom over the region.
Since Israeli forces launched their aggression in October 2023, Israel’s war on terror in Gaza has caused unprecedented human misery. More than 37,000 Palestinians have died, 1.9 million have been forced to leave their homes, and important infrastructure such as schools and hospitals has been systematically destroyed. In January 2024, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) called on Israel to take ‘all measures’ to stop the genocide. The court found irrefutable evidence of the use of indiscriminate force and humanitarian blockage of the territory. UN experts have reported more than 32,000 civilian deaths, including 14,500 children. As many as 72 per cent of homes in Gaza have either been damaged or destroyed. Critics attribute the situation to international impunity, which has enabled Israel to commit the most heinous acts against humanity.
On June 13, Israel launched a massive air campaign against more than 100 Iranian military, nuclear and other targets. Taking Iran by surprise, the air raids damaged important installations, including the Heavy Water Reactor in Khondab and the uranium enrichment complex in Natanz. They also attacked IRGC command centres in Tehran and Rasht, killing top military officials including Mohammad Bagheri, Hossein Salami and Major-General Gholam Ali Rashid. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the attack as a ‘pre-emptive necessity’ to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability and end its support for anti-Israel militants and organisations like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in the region.
Israel’s war on terror in Gaza has caused unprecedented human misery
Yet experts maintain that Israel’s attack on Iranian territory was an act of aggression because it broke the UN Charter’s rule on using force. While Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has been under the close watch of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel, which developednuclear weapons in the 1970s with French connivance and has a large stockpile of between 90 to 400 warheads, is not even a signatory of the NPT.
Iran’s response was quick and violent. Tehran sent more than 400 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones to Israeli cities within days. Iranian missiles struck the Kirya area in Tel Aviv, which houses the IDF headquarters and Mossad’s operational centre. They also hit the Rafael weapons complex and Haifa oil refineryand, most tragically, the Soroka Medical Centre in Beersheba, injuring 240 civilians. Submunitions from cluster missiles damaged the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot. Iran’s supposed employment of Fattah-1 hypersonic glide vehicles, which Western analysts challenge but which have been confirmed as cluster munitions, was a tactical change meant to break through Israel’s air defences, including the Iron Dome. Iranian retaliation achieved military and psychological warfare goals as it successfully inflicted widespread damage while undermining the Israeli perception of invincibility.
Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and has been under the close watch of the International Atomic Energy Agency
The bigger picture
The Israel-Iran conflict has historical roots dating back to Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. Israel sees Iran’s support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, and its development of weapons, as dangers to Israel’s very existence. But Iran has often been vulnerable to a series of Israel’s secret operations, such as hacking and the assassination of Iranian scientists and generals. Israel has been carrying out its disruptive operations with impunity, thanks to billions of dollars in US military aid, veto protection at the UN, and half-hearted opposition to its unlawful actions by many European countries. It is this Western backing that has emboldened Israel to carry out covert actions and blatant military campaigns in the Middle East without having to face anyconsequences for its actions. All this has finally led to the current escalation.
Now, the dispute might spiral into a larger regional war, encompassing Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and perhaps NATO troops. Iran had made it quite clear that US military intervention could turn the region into ‘hell’ and put US bases in danger. It has also declared that it will not negotiate ‘under bombardment’. Consequently, European leaders’ diplomatic efforts to restart the nuclear talks remain deadlocked.
Nuclear shadow
The constant threat of nuclear contamination from bombed sites, including the use of mega bunker-buster munitions by the US, makes the situation even more alarming. Reports say that Israel has about 90 nuclear warheads. Although Israel has not used nuclear weapons, its ongoing attacks on Iranian nuclear sites such as the Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor have raised fears of nuclear contamination. Russia has also warned against assaults on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, where its experts are working. Claims by the US to have‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear capacity hardly seem credible;Iranians say that, anticipating the attack, they had moved out men, enriched uranium and other material. The US claims could be a ruse to provide the Israelis with an alibi to extricate themselves from the imbroglio.
If fact, there is no military solution to the dispute. Distrust, ideological perceptions, racist arroganceand, above all, the demand for a Palestinian homeland are at the root of the crisis. Israel wants a regime change in Iran so it can achieve its larger objective of driving out Palestinians from Gaza and expand its settlements in the West Bank. However, Israeli attacks havenot weakened Iran militarily, nor has the US been able to shut down Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Similarly, while Iran’s response, including the killing of civilians, hasnot weakened Israel’s military, serious doubts have been raisedabout its so-called Iron Dome defence system. The country is running out of interceptors, which cost millions of dollars, having failed to neutralise huge salvos of Iranian missiles, comprising a mix of decoys, multiple warheads, hypersonic glide vehicles, cruise missiles and low-cost drones – a highly cost-effective arsenal built and refined over the years.Further escalation could lead to disaster in the region, including the blockage of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Although unlikely, a direct confrontation between Iran and the US, with Iran hitting at American assets in the Gulf, may result in a prolonged and devastating war in the region.Neutral mediators must work in earnest to bring about a truce at the earliest.
Moreover, it is time the International Criminal Court (ICC) looks into war crimes being committed in Gaza. Finally, we need to return to diplomacy, which includes bringing back the JCPOA nuclear accord with guarantees from other countries. The world’s inaction must stop; only urgent, balanced diplomacy, which faces the unpalatable and painful truth that both aggressors and facilitators must be held accountable, can stop more killings and destruction.
Yvonne Gill is a freelance journalist based in London