February 2025

FATE ACCOMPLI?

Fate accompli?

Yvonne Gill assesses the sweeping ecological implications of a proposed Chinese mega-dam projecton the Tibetan Plateau, which would harm ecosystems and put millions at risk

Tibet has been Beijing’s goose that lays golden eggs. But the elite at the helm of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and its various affiliates, in its reckless pursuit of economic growth, seems benton slaying the proverbial goose – at the cost of terminally devastating the world’s most ecologically sensitive mountain range, threatening the lives and livelihoods of 500 million people dependent on the rivers that flow downstream and have nurtured a vast ecosystem of flora and fauna for millions of years.

In stark contrast to President Xi Jinping’s New Year message calling for international cooperation to combat climate change, Beijing’s unilateral decision to build the world’s largest dam on the longest river of the Tibetan Plateau would have adverse effects in this regard, and could severely strain Beijing’s already tense relationship with neighbouring countries, especially India.

The Global Times announced that China plans to build a cascade of nine large hydropower projects on the Yarlung Tsangpo,Tibet’s last undammed, free-flowing river. People in India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh were stunned, fearing the environmental impact of a project that will be built across a highly earthquake-prone region. Moreover, the project has been given the go-ahead unilaterally by Chinese authorities, without consulting the downstream countries.

Himalayan glaciers
THIRD POLE: Himalayan glaciers form the largest body of ice outside the polar cap

The Metog dam, due to be constructed on the Great Bend, will be the world’s largest hydropower station and could generate 38,000 MW of power – about three times the capacity of China’s Three Gorges Dam. The Great Bend is where Yarlung Tsangpo enters one of the world’s deepest and largest gorges, starting from a 4,900 metre cleft between two of the highest mountains in Eastern Himalaya: 7,756 metres high Namchak Barwa and 7,294 metres tall Gyala Pelri. The river drops nearly 2,500 metres, forming several waterfalls that have great potential for hydropower generation.

This proposed mega-hydropower project on Tibet’s Yarlung Tsangpo (known as the Siang in Arunachal Pradesh and then the Brahmaputra) will have far-reaching implications for ecological, geopolitical and humanitarian landscapes across multiple countries. It also raises the spectre of catastrophic flash floods downstream in the eventuality of a powerful earthquake breaching the reservoirs and other civil works of the project.

China’s proposed project raises the spectre of catastrophic flash floods

We all know that the Himalayas is a highly seismic region, experiencing frequent earthquakes. Dams could be destroyed, not only causing death and destructionin the immediate vicinity, but also across large expanses downstream in neighbouring countries. Some Chinese researchers maintain that dams are both the trigger and the victim of these quakes. Cascade dams, experts say, are likely to cause chain reactions and expand the impact of any earthquake beyond Tibet, causing catastrophic flash floods in downstream countries like India, Nepal and Bangladesh.

The ecological implications of such a massive infrastructure project are profound. Mega-dams in mountain ecosystems disrupt complex hydrological systems, fundamentally altering river flow patterns, sediment transportation and entire watershed ecosystems. These disruptions have far-reaching consequences for biodiversity, agricultural productivity, and the livelihoods of millions dependent on these river systems.

The Himalayan region hosts extraordinary biodiversity, with over 10,000 plant species and numerous wildlife populations. A mega-dam threatens to fragment critical wildlife migration corridors, interrupt natural nutrient transport mechanisms, and compromise the delicate balance of alpine and sub-alpine ecosystems. The potential downstream impacts extend beyond local environmental concerns, directly affecting water resources in India and Bangladesh.

The future of the Himalayan region depends on our ability to balance development needs with ecological conservation

Other than constructing dams, Chinese companies’ mining and industrial activities in Tibet have,over the last two decades, adversely affected the ecologically fragile Himalayan region, which is rich in mineral resources, including coal, potassium, copper, gold and lithium. The rapid expansion of industrial and mining areas has led to considerable ecological degradation. Between 1990 and 2020, the areasubject to industrial and mining activities in the Tibetan Plateau grew by 3.3 times, covering 968.95 sq. km. This has resulted in landscape fragmentation, reduced vegetation cover, soil alteration and increased pollution levels.

Stretching 3,500 km from China to Afghanistan, the Hindu Kush Himalayas, it must be stressed, is crucial to understanding climatic changes affecting our planet. Also called ‘the Third Pole’ by scientists, the Himalayan glaciers cover three million hectares, the largest body of ice outside the polar caps, which are the source of water for numerous rivers flowing across the Indo-Gangetic plains. These glaciers store immense quantities of freshwater, supporting perennial rivers like the Indus, Gangaand Brahmaputra, the lifeline of millions in South Asian countries, including Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, India and Bangladesh. The Gangetic basin alone is home to 500 million people.

Chinese mining areas in the Tibetan Plateau
Between 1990 and 2020, the area subject to industrial and mining activities in the Tibetan Plateau grew by 3.3 times

Himalayan glaciers are vital because they help keep big rivers flowing, which provide drinking water for nearly 2 billion people, water for farming and irrigation, and hydropower for millions of people. These glaciers also help control the weather in the region and keep the environment balanced. But there is a big problem: the glaciers are melting very fast. Scientists have been warning us about this for decades.

A recent report said that the glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayas could lose up to 80 per cent of their ice by 2100. If this happens, it will cause dangerous flooding and water shortages for two billion people. Flash floods and avalanches will become more common, and fresh water will become scarce for the 240 million people living in the Himalayan region and 1.65 billion living downstream.

The Himalayan region is a critical ecological zone that supports the livelihoods of millions of people. However, the rapid expansion of dam construction and mining activities pose significant environmental, seismic and social risks. The alteration of natural water flows, landscape fragmentation, vegetation loss and pollution are just some of the adverse impacts of these activities. Additionally, the seismically active nature of the region increases the risks of catastrophic devastation cascading downstream during earthquakes.

To mitigate these impacts, it is essential to adopt sustainable development practices, strengthen environmental impact assessments, promote transboundary water management, and implement strict regulations for mining activities. Engaging local communities in decision-making processes and providing them with alternative livelihood options can also help mitigate the social and economic impacts of these activities.

The future of the Himalayan region depends on our ability to balance development needs with ecological conservation. By adopting sustainable practices and promoting regional cooperation, we can ensure the long-term sustainability of this critical ecological zone and the well-being of the communities that depend on it.

But there are powerful lobbies in China, including big construction companies and the People’s Liberation Army, which continue to push for large-scale infrastructure developments. The critical question that needs to be asked is: Will scientific thinking and common sense prevail, or will China’s power and money lobbies determine the region’s fate?

Yvonne Gill is a freelance journalist based in London