EDITORIAL – March & April 2026- Asia must shift from reliance to responsibility

With uncomfortable clarity, the Iran war has exposed the vulnerability of the Indo-Pacific to distant events outside of its control.

For decades, the United States has held itself as the region’s security guarantor, as symbolised by its bases in Japan and South Korea and its Freedom of Navigation operations in the South China Sea.

Shockingly, the US has now ripped up its practical pledges of support and its much-touted value sheet on the rule-of-law.

America’s initiative to begin the conflict has torn apart assumptions that once underpinned the region’s stability.

For Asia, its prosperity rests on energy flows and sea lanes that begin far beyond its own perimeter. When those flows are threatened, the consequences are immediate: higher prices, disrupted supply chains and political strain at home.

In the eyes of many across Asia, the powerful nation long trusted to secure order has become the rogue actor.

Equally damaging is the increasing distrust toward many Western democracies for failing to call out the US on it military actions. Developing nations will no longer tolerate lectures on good governance by those who are ignoring what Washington is now doing.

The loss of American legitimacywas succinctly summed up at last month’s Raisina Dialogue in Delhi by Indianforeign minister S. Jaishankar, who bluntly said that ‘this was the order by the West, for the West and from the West’,adding that the 70-year post-war era made up only one per cent of Indian history. ‘Why would it last?’ Jaishankar asked. ‘Life moves on.’

The evolving situation presents a conundrum.

Asa recent Democracy Forum debate concluded, non-Western institutions such as BRICS will have no capacity for many decades to step in with their own global systems. Yet the current world order is fragmenting, with no initiative for the type of reform needed to restore trust and create balance.

Asia, therefore, is hedging and building partnerships elsewhere which gather around three of the bigger powers, China, India and Japan.

Beijing’s response to the Iran conflict has been characteristically cautious, consistent with its long-term approach of steadily building capacity without the distraction of war. China’smodel, transactional, non-interventionist, and unencumbered by lectures on governance, has long been more attractive to parts of the Global South.

India’s position will be central to this evolution. Delhi is geographically pivotal and wary of formal alignment.

As nations once gathered around the beacon of American values, so they will begin edging toward India with its beacon of non-alignment and multi-polarity. As Dr G. Venkat Raman told the Democracy Forum debate, ‘India is skilled at managing contradictions.’

Japan’s trajectory is different. Its alliance with America and wartime record means it can present no alternate beacon.

Nevertheless, Tokyo is sensibly weakening its post-war constraints and moving quietly and decisively towards a more normal security posture.An economy so dependent on external energy cannot remain militarily passive, and itsbelief in American reliability has weakened, probably beyond repair.

Within that mindset comes a more worrying dynamic.

America’s violent action –ostensibly to prevent Iran building a nuclear bomb – has sown the seed for other nations to acquire the very same weapon.

Last September, Saudi Arabia signed a defence agreement that gave it nuclear weapons protection from Pakistan. Japan and South Korea are technically advanced enough to build a weapon within months, should they want to.

Against this fast-evolving backdrop, therefore, Asia must rethink its security assumptions from the ground up.The clear priorities are access to energy, open sea lanes and continuation of trade.

Unlike the West, the region is too diverse with too many different systems of government to create unified institutions that could replace those within the current world order.

The appropriate response must be neither alarmism nor complacency, but adjustment.

Governments need to invest in resilience, expand their capabilities and accept a more active role in shaping their security environment.

In short, the Iran war acts as the marker that persuades the region to move from reliance to responsibility.