January 2025

DHAKA’S DEMOCRACY DREAM

Dhaka’s democracy dream

Muhammad Yunus’ interim government, backed by the US, is struggling to stabilise Bangladesh amidst violence against religious minorities. Amit Agnihotri reports.

The US-backed interim government headed by Muhammad Yunus in coup-struck Bangladesh came into existence in August with the promise of ushering in political and economic reforms. But since its birth it has been struggling to curb ethnic violence against religious minorities, which could shatter Dhaka’s dream of democracy.

Yunus, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist turned interim chief adviser, came to head the new government in the wake of the chaos resulting from the student-led uprising which forced then prime minister Sheikh Hasina to flee the country. Hasina took refuge in neighbouring India, which has a high stake in Bangladesh’s stability.

The targeting of religious minorities followed soon after.

A strong critic of Sheikh Hasina’s rule over the past decade, Yunus generated hope that Bangladesh would soon return to normalcy, marked by fully functional democratic institutions and a stable economy.

Muhammad Yunus
Muhammad Yunus generated hope that Bangladesh would soon return to normalcy

However, Dhaka’s failure to protect its religious minorities has exposed flaws in the new administration and raised fears of radical Islamist forces regaining ground in a grim reminder of the period between 2001 and 2006, when the hardline Bangladesh Nationalist party-Jamaat-e-Islami combine rule led to the growth of radicalism across the South Asian country. Interestingly, the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami has been lifted by the interim regime.

According to a report by Transparency International Bangladesh, over 2,000 incidents of ethnic violence took place between August 5 and 20 after Sheikh Hasina fled the country. Various minority groups even wrote letters to convey their fears to Yunus but the cases were not properly investigated, the TIB report said.

The violence has angered Bangladesh’s neighbour, South Asian major India, which registered a strong protest with Dhaka following criticism from the domestic opposition.

Dhaka’s failure to protect its religious minorities has exposed flaws in the new administration

India, which played a key role in the formation of Bangladesh in 1971, was upset over several reports of incidents of violence against Hindus and other minorities, their homes and business establishments, and of attacks on temples and other religious centres, including in the month of August, across the country.

The targeting of religious minorities, including Hindus, Christians and Buddhists, allegedly at the hands of radical Islamist groups, who seemed to be hand-in-glove with the Army, has severely dented the new administration’s pluralistic credentials.

After Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, which took the Indian intelligence apparatus completely by surprise, there were reports that the administration of outgoing US president Joe Biden, which strangely did not slam the toppling of an elected government but was rather quick to welcome the appointment of Yunus as an interim head, was behind the sudden change of guard in Bangladesh.

The US has been troubled by China’s growing influence in Bangladesh

According to some estimates, the US has been troubled by China’s growing influence in Bangladesh and wanted to install a US-friendly regime. Muhammad Yunus, who has good connections in American academic and power circles, was considered a good choiceby Bangladesh’s hardliners, as he could put up a façade of decency.

Later, US President-elect Donald Trump criticised the ethnic violence in Bangladesh and demanded strong action against those guilty of carrying it out. But Yunus dubbed the allegations exaggerated propaganda to destabilise the South Asian country.

Since taking charge, Yunus’ interim government has been trying to undo a lot of the excesses allegedly committed under the rule of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League party over the past years.

Besides a host of reforms listed by Yunus when he took over the role of chief adviser to the military-backed regime, also notable were attempts to recast the Dhaka-New Delhi equation.

of statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman being pulled down by radicals in Dhaka
Images of a statue of Bangladesh founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman being pulled down by radicals in Dhaka shocked viewers across the world

After images of a statue of Bangladesh founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman being pulled down by radicals in Dhaka shocked viewers across the world, the new regime demanded the extradition of Sheikh Hasina, who is Mujibur’s daughter, from India. She has been in India since August 5, the day her government collapsed following months of student-led protests.

The Bangladesh foreign ministry also raked up events of the 1971 war and alleged that India ignored Bangladesh’s military commanders when the surrender documents were signed between the Indian and Pakistan Armies in Dhaka.This was in reference to December 16, 1971, when the Pakistan Army’s 93,000 troops surrendered to Indian forces. Bangladesh, till then known as East Pakistan, was liberated on that day from the clutches of West Pakistan.

The geographically ridiculous formation of East Pakistan and West Pakistan, which were over 2,000 km apart, was the result of the 1947 Partition during which the Indian subcontinent gained independence from 200 years of British rule.

Some members of the interim regime even criticised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for not mentioning Bangladesh in his social media post on December 16, which is celebrated as Victory Day in India. Other irritants included uploading erroneous maps of India and claims over Indian territories, which riled New Delhi.

As ties with became more strained India, pressure started building up on Yunus to pave the way for a duly elected government as early as possible.

Interestingly, Sheikh Hasinacame to power for a fresh term only in January 2024, just seven months prior to her ouster.  The Awami League’s main rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, is now back in action.

Yunus finally announced that general elections in Bangladesh may be held in 2025 or 2026, but he faces a huge challenge in purifying the electoral rolls which were allegedly tampered with over the past years. If that does not happen, the credibility of the next general elections will also be questioned, as were the 2024 polls. Moreover, the failure of a civilian administration to restore democracy might prompt the military to take control, as happened in Pakistan.

Soon after the initial euphoria of the August revolution, economic reality began to bite as the new regime sought financial help worth $8 billion from US-backed institutions including the IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank, in order to be able to honour paybacks and push development programs.

With Donald Trump soon to be sworn in as US president, his plans to impose a 10 percent levy on all imports may spell trouble for Bangladesh’s garment exporters, although there are views that Washington may not push the envelope for the sake of its own companies. If not controlled, high inflation will continue to strain the Bangladeshi economy.

Finally, the perceived closeness of the Yunus regime to the outgoing Biden administration in America may result in sharper scrutiny of financial aid by the incoming Trump administration.

Amit Agnihotri is a Delhi-based journalist who has worked with several national newspapers and focuses on politics and policy issues