HITTING THE HORNET’S NEST
Hitting the hornet’s nest
As the confrontation between the US-Israel coalition and Iran continues to escalatefar beyond American expectations, the fallout is being felt globally. Amit Agnihotri, reports
With the US-Israel-Iran war still raging more than a month on, precipitating a geopolitical crisis around the world, the geo-economic impact has left the world’s nations gasping for breath.
‘Operation Epic Fury’ began on February 28, shocking the world with the killing of Tehran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the very first day. The sudden attack was especially surprising, coming as it didamidst backchannel peace talks between the US and Iran, hosted by Oman.
America told the world it was forced to attack Iran to stop the Islamic nation from pursuing a secret nuclear weapons program, threatening peace in the volatile West Asia region, where Washington has allied with Israel for decades to keep their rivals in check.
Yet Washington had already claimed that Iran’s nuclear ambitions were‘obliterated’ when the Esfahan facility was bombed in June 2025.
Such an explanation reminded many of the similar argument offered for the US attack on Iraq back in 1991. The US accused then Iraqi president Saddam Hussein of building weapons of mass destruction, which were never found by the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors.
In the initial days of the Iran war, bringing about regime change in Tehran appeared to be the strategic objective of both Washington and Tel Aviv, whose authority had often been challenged by Ali Khamenei.
However, America’s alleged plan was thwarted as the conflict has continued far longer thananticipated. Iranhas shown remarkable resilience against an unprecedented US-Israel attack which removed layers of Tehran’s top leadership and severely impaired its industrial, military and nuclear facilities. Much to America’s surprise, Iran swiftly elected Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as hissuccessor. Rather than making conciliatory noises, Mojtaba vowed revenge on America.
US strategists quickly realised that a stable leadership, even a radical one, was better than the prospect of Iran slipping into chaos, as this would breed further anti-US sentiment and threaten peace and security across the entireregion.
In the great global power game that has been played for decades, the US always aimed to dominate the oil-rich West Asia region.This has been the objective of President Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) policy, Trump’s way of reasserting US dominance in the face of a rising China, which had forged close bonds with another American rival, Russia.
The US strategists were also wary of the emerging China-Russia-North Korea-Iran axis, as it directly challenged US global ambitions. Against that backdrop, Iran had to be tamed to secure America’s interests in West Asia.
Yet the US-Israel aerial attack unexpectedly hit a hornet’s nest.It has led to a counter-offensive from Iran, which has broad-based the conflict by attacking American assets in US-allied Arab nations such as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and in Israel. Iran chose its targets carefully to cripple the energy infrastructure in these nations, but its retaliation has triggered a crisis that spans well beyond the region.
America’s alleged plan was thwarted as the conflict has continued far longer than anticipated
Not only did Iranian missiles, drones and cluster bombs fox US and Israeli radars, but Tehran’s move to block the Strait of Hormuz has left thousands of international oil tankers stranded in the area. This hast set alarm bells ringing across the world as nations grow ever more anxious over energy security.
The blockade of the Strait has meant significant reduction in oil production among the Gulf states, forcing them to ease up their oil reserves and hence pushing up the price of Brent crude.Crude oil produces various petrochemicals that serve as base materials for the world’s fertiliser and pharma industries, which now face shortages. And low fuel supplies have spiked its cost, adding to inflationary pressures that place additional financial burdens on people across the globe.
Another cascading effect of the crisis has beena threat to global agricultural production, and subsequent potential food shortages.
Moreover, the blockage of Hormuz has affected the global shipping industry, which has struggled with hikes in insurance costs due to the rerouting of vessels. The energy crisis has also hit global stock markets, causing millions of small investors to lose trillions of dollars in value.
Iran, which has broad-based the conflict by attacking American assets in US-allied Arab nations
As the world struggles to cope with the short-term impact of the energy crisis, the long-term projections of the Iran war have raised fears of reduced economic growth, in particular the high cost of energy infrastructure reconstruction in the Gulf states.
Angered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Trump sought the help of NATO allies to clear this key shipping lane. Butthey refused to bail out the US, and small wonder.While NATO members have long been dependent on the US for their security, they have been upset lately over the real intentions of Trump’s MAGA policy, which required them to boost their defence expenditures significantly over the next decade. What is more, Trump’s new security policy, unveiled in November 2025, had ridiculed the Atlantic allies, and thebrazen US action in Venezuela in January this yeardid not go down well with European nations.
Accordingly, NATO members refused to play ball by joining the Iran war in Hormuz. This provoked the US president, who threatened his allies with dire consequences.
The 21-mile long, heavily mined Strait of Hormuz has proved a real bane for America, whichsoon realised that forcing Iran to open the key shipping lane would be counterproductive. The only way to resolve the issue, it seems, will be to negotiate with the enemy, especially as Trump now faceswaning credibility at home and abroad, and growing impatience among all the world’s nations over his continuing war in Iran.
Trump’s explanation for attacking Iran sounds increasinglyspurious and dissent has increased following high gas prices. The White House has tried to show strength by ordering the Pentagon to prepare for an extended ground offensive in Iran, yet at the same time, it has offered a 15-point peace formula to the Islamic nation in an attempt to wriggle out of the situation.
Of course, Iran is also seeking a respectable retreat, and appears to be in a position to strike a deal on itsterms. The final shape of the pact and its timeline remain to be seen.
Meanwhile, global US rivals China and Russia, who did not directly join the Iran war, have extended their moral support to the battered Islamic nation, whose fightback has exposed chinks in the Western superpower’s armour.
Amid the Strait of Hormuz blockage, safe passage granted to shipsflying the Chinese and Russian flags is a sure pointer towards Iran’s close links with America’s global rivals. It is also an indicator that Trump’s calculations in Iran have gone badly wrong, and he will have to put America’s superpower ambitions on hold for now.
Amit Agnihotri is a Delhi-based journalist who has worked with several national newspapers and focuses on politics and policy issues