PAST POWER LINGERS ON
Past power lingers on
In the wake of Indonesia’s regional executive elections, Yvonne Gill considers the continuing influence a former leader exerts over the nation’s political landscape.
Candidates backed by the newly inaugurated Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto are set to make significant gains in the country’s regional executive elections held on November 27. Prabowo, a former army general, was elected President in February this year. His predecessor, Joko Widodo, popularity known by his nickname ‘Jokowi’, had also lent his support to candidates belonging to a coalition of parties enjoying the President’s support.
Prabowo’s coalition is poised to win Central Java, West Java, East Java and other key regions. The capital Jakarta, however, is a notable exception, where candidates supported by the opposition Democratic Party Struggle (PDIP) have received 49.49 per cent and 51.1 per cent of the votes, and could set off a secondary round of elections if coalition candidates fail to cross the 50 per cent threshold. All local elections except for the Jakarta gubernatorial election follow the first-past-the-post system.
The official election results are likely to be announced between November 30 and December 15.
Independent polling survey organisations have already announced the preliminary counts that suggest a strong performance for Prabowo-backed candidates. These results will strengthen Prabowo’s political position and allow him to honour his election promises, such as free meals for schoolchildren, schemes for the alleviation of poverty and infrastructure development. This would also set the stage for his probable re-election bid in 2029.
With control over a majority of the provinces, Prabowo can better coordinate and implement his policies at the local level, without significant opposition from local governments.
Spread across more than 17,000 islands with three different time zones, the local executive elections were held simultaneously across 548 regions, including 37 provinces, 415 regencies, and 93 cities. With over 200 million voters on the rolls, it was a herculean task for officials to ensure that the polling, beginning early at 7 in the morning and closing at 1pm, ran smoothly throughout the sprawling archipelago. Following a new law passed in 2022, elections were held simultaneously for the first time to elect the provincial governors, city mayors and regents.
Much credit for holding the almost incident-free elections should go to Indonesia’s election machinery. The low turnout of 40 per cent has been attributed to floods and landslides in many areas, as well as election fatigue among the people, who are fed up with seeing the same faces and dynasts popping up every five years or so.
Prabowo’s coalition is poised to win Central Java, West Java, East Java and other key regions
Not that the election process was without some fireworks, including the arrest of Bengkulu governor Rohidin Mersyah and two of his officials for trying to bribe voters during the campaign. Some seven billion rupiah (US$440,000) were seized in this specific case, according to Corruption Eradication Commission Deputy Chairman Alexander Marwata, who points to the growing trend of vote-buying ahead of elections.
The appointing, by central government, of officials as acting executives has also been criticised for its lack of transparency. Almost half of Indonesia’s regions were being governed by these officials at the time of the election.
This electoral victory, however, comes as a boon for Prabowo, who plans to adopt a more aggressive economic posture, characterised by increased government spending to stimulate growth. Prabowo’s administration will also focus on improving food production and supply chains. This includes appointing trusted officials to manage agricultural policies effectively, ensuring a stable supply of food for both general domestic consumption and his school programmes.
Free trade agreements with Eurasian countries is another plank of Prabowo’s foreign policy to expand Indonesia’s trade relations beyond its traditional partners
Regarding international relations, Prabowo is likely to continue Indonesia’s non-aligned stance of maintaining cordial relations with major powers like China, Russia, and the United States. Officials say that free trade agreements with Eurasian countries is another plank of his foreign policy to expand Indonesia’s trade relations beyond its traditional partners. Given his military background, he wants to have defence ties with countries like France and Turkey to strengthen Indonesia’s military capabilities.
Most analysts agree that the Joko Widodo, who remains one of the country’s most popular ever leaders, was an important factor in helping the ruling coalition make major gains. For his efforts to support to Prabowo, Jokowi faced criticism from opposition parties and within his own former party, the PDIP. His decision to back Prabowo over PDIP’s candidate created tensions and highlighted the challenges he faced in unifying diverse political factions under his influence. While the former President’s controversial endorsement and active involvement in the election process contributed to Prabowo’s victory, it also reflected Jokowi’s enduring influence on Indonesian politics and among the masses in general.
Earlier, too, as the sitting President, Jokowi had mobilised state resources to support Prabowo’s presidential campaign. This included distributing social assistance and engaging in public events that highlighted his support for Prabowo and his running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka (Jokowi’s son). Such actions were seen as leveraging his popularity to garner voter support for Prabowo. Critics called out the use of public funds as political corruption.
The voting patterns in Indonesia’s recent regional elections exhibited notable differences between urban and rural areas, reflecting broader trends in political preferences and social dynamics. The turnout was higher in urban areas, and voters there tended to favour candidates who align with progressive and liberal policies.
Urban centres saw a mix of political affiliations, with significant support for opposition parties. For instance, in Jakarta, candidates backed by the Democratic Party Struggle (PDIP) performed much better, indicating a preference for established political entities that resonate with urban voters.
Rural voters showed an inclination for conservative candidates and parties. The issues that touched them were traditional values, agricultural policies and local governance. Rural voters preferred candidates from Prabowo’s coalition, due to his promises related to agricultural and rural development. The turnout was low due to many reasons, including fewer people turning up to vote in disaster-prone areas.
In sum, the recent elections highlighted a clear urban-rural divide in Indonesia’s political landscape, with distinct preferences emerging that reflect broader socio-economic conditions and cultural values. The demographic preferences were there in the past too, but this time it was visible in their voting preferences too.
The grand old lady of Indonesian politics Megawati Sukarnoputri, leader of PDIP, former President of the country and one-time mentor to Joko Widodo, has stated that people’s sovereignty was being manipulated for the sake of power. She even asserted that democracy in Indonesia was being threatened with death.
Her frustration is not without reason, for the new kingmaker of Indonesian politics is undoubtedly Jokowi. Even after leaving office, he continues to exert influence. How long he will be able to maintain his relevance on the country’s political scene, however, is yet to be seen.
Yvonne Gill is a freelance journalist based in London