PLAYING PEACEMAKER
Playing peacemaker
Can India lead the way in brokering peace in the Ukraine war, wonders Amit Agnihotri, or was PM Modi’s recent visit to Kyiv simply a balancing act between Russia and the US?
The role of South Asia major India as a potential peacemaker in the Russia-Ukraine war has given fresh hopes to the international community amid the raging Eurasian conflict that started in February 2022 and continues to threaten the existing world order.
Around 1 million Ukrainians and Russians have been killed or injured in the conflict which, many fear, may lead to nuclear war between Russia and the US-backed NATO.
India’s role as a potential peacemaker came to prominence when Indian prime Minister Narendra Modi met Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on August 23 this year.
The visit was significant as it was the first for an Indian premier since New Delhi established diplomatic relations with Kyiv in 1992. But the conclave threw up questions about whether Modi’s trip would yield results, or simply be viewed as yet another attempt by the South Asian major to strike a diplomatic balance between arch-rivals the US and Russia.
No peace in the Eurasian conflict is possible without the approval of Russia, Ukraine and the US: Russia because it is the aggressor, Ukraine as a nation defending itself against attack, and the US because it has been fully behind the resistance that Kyiv has so far managed to put up against Moscow’s mighty military machine.
Three years into the conflict, both Russia and Ukraine publicly state that they are prepared for a long haul. But a deep sense of war fatigue has set in among the armed forces on both sides.
The real problem is: who will blink first in an eye-to-eye confrontation? It is here that international mediation assumes significance.
World powers cannot be accused of not trying to end the Eurasian war over the past three years. The problem has been that either the proposed peace plan was not actionable, or the nation or group of nations hosting the peace talks lacked credibility for one side or the other.
In the early phase of the conflict, countries including Israel and Indonesia tried to mediate but failed, as they had no leverage over Russia. Turkey, which is on good terms with both Russia and Ukraine, also tried to bring the two warring parties to the negotiating table but it too failed.
In 2023, China, a close ally of Russia, had suggested a 12-point plan to usher in peace in Ukraine but the proposal did not find favour with the US and its European allies.
While the Biden administration was suspicious of China’s role, former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg argued that Beijing was not well-placed to negotiate an end to the war. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also observed that China’s blueprint was not a peace plan, rather just a set of principles.
Yet another global attempt unfolded in June this year when the Ukraine peace summit was held in Switzerland. The conclave produced a joint communique signed by 89 countries but did not make any headway.
The reason for this was that Russia, which started the war by invading Ukraine in February 2022, was not invited to the Switzerland summit, organised at the behest of the US-led West. As a result, China, a key Russian ally and US rival, chose not to attend.
India, a strategic partner of both the US and Russia and also on friendly terms with Ukraine, attended the Switzerland conclave, though it did not sign the joint communique.
This led to world leaders, including outgoing US president Joe Biden and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, pinning their hopes on India, which had always been a strong voice of the Global South, a term often used to describe the developing world, which does not want to be associated either with the US or the Russia-led blocs.
Three years into the conflict, both Russia and Ukraine publicly state that they are prepared for a long haul
If New Delhi hosts the next peace summit in the near future, chances are bright that it will have the participation of both Russia and Ukraine, who understand India’s neutral position.
Being on cordial terms with both aggressor and victim in this ongoing Eurasian conflict, India could pitch itself as a peacemaker.
Given that it has enjoyed a strategic relationship with Russia for decades, New Delhi chose not to condemn Moscow for invading Ukraine by abstaining from key resolutions against Russia in both the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly.
India has since been reiterating that a solution to the Ukraine war is possible only through dialogue and diplomacy, and recently offered to mediate in the conflict.
As one of the largest importers of Russian defence equipment, India did not want to weaken its strategic ties with Moscow, nurtured over decades. In contrast, New Delhi’s relationship with Ukraine is new, yet it offers a lot of growth potential.
Countries including Israel and Indonesia have tried to mediate but failed
The US, which had been angered by India’s neutral stance, was infuriated when New Delhi started buying discounted oil from Moscow, which had been badly hit by harsh Western economic sanctions.
From Russia’s perspective, India had acted like a true friend and Putin valued the gesture. This was reflected in a speech he made at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, where the Russian president named India, Brazil and China as possible mediators in the Ukraine conflict, thus acknowledging the trust he has in these nations to facilitate a dialogue.
As far as Ukraine is concerned, India’s decades-old image as a non-aligned nation of the developing world has lent credibility to New Delhi’s reaching out to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who received PM Modi with open arms.
This was in sharp contrast to Zelenskyy’s comments a few months earlier, when he scoffed at Modi and Putin hugging each other near Moscow on July 8.
After the August 23 meeting with Modi, Zelenskyy described his talks with the Indian premier as positive and expressed his willingness to attend a peace summit that may be hosted by New Delhi over the coming months.
Before Modi’s visit, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba had visited India in search of new friends and urged New Delhi to play the peacemaker.
The Modi-Zelenskyy conclave was followed by a meeting between India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Russian President Putin in St. Petersburg, raising further hopes of New Delhi’s likely involvement in peace talks to end the Ukraine war.
If India succeeds in its efforts, it will certainly be a major step up for New Delhi on the world stage. Even if it doesn’t, the South Asia major’s image as a global peacemaker is sure to get a boost.
Amit Agnihotri is a Delhi-based journalist who has worked with several national newspapers and focuses on politics and policy issues