December 2024

A CHANGE IN OUTLOOK

A change in outlook

The global climate crisis, the severity of its threat to South Asia and measures that can be taken to counter it were themes for discussion at The Democracy Forum’s latest webinar

Generating political will to address climate change in South Asia and beyond may be an even greater challenge than climate change itself, and there is an urgent need for better climate change education and communication. These were some of the views expressed by experts at a recent panel discussion hosted by The Democracy Forum, titled ‘Climate change: South Asia’s biggest threat?’ The event took place as Cop29 convened in Azerbaijan, and as G20 leaders gathered in Rio de Janeiro.

In his introductory comments, TDF President Lord Bruce spoke of the communiques emerging from the recent Cop 29 UN climate conference, which remind us that Asia remains the world’s most disaster-hit region from climate-related hazards, with dramatic evidence of natural disasters, triggered by climate change, fast accumulating across the Indian subcontinent and its neighbouring countries of South Asia.  An emerging consensus of climate modelling now indicates an impending crisis affecting a core group of frontline South Asian states, principally Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. It is also worth reflecting, added Lord Bruce, that the global climate crisis – and the lack of urgency in dealing with it – was anticipated almost 30 years ago by the Bangladeshi activist Atiq Rahman who, at the very first UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held at Berlin in 1995, warned, ‘If climate change makes our country uninhabitable…we will march with our wet feet into your living room’.

Lord Bruce highlighted predictions of a 2-4 degree C regional rise in temperature within the next 30 years, which will cause an ‘unimaginable scale of economic damage’ from the combined effects of melting Himalayan glaciers, lethal heatwaves, increasing cyclonic activity and coastal flooding, impacting not only peripheral or rural ecosystems, but also urban areas.  Referring to the likely economic consequences for the regions, Lord Bruce said that by 2030 it is estimated that over 200m people living in Indian cities will be forced to endure the frequent and searing experience of heatwaves, with the impact felt unevenly by households – fewer than half – less likely to have access to air-conditioning. He touched, too, on present and future losses of outdoor working hours in both India and Pakistan due to excessive heat, with the attendant adverse impact on productivity and GDP.  Citing Bengali novelist Amitav Ghosh, Lord Bruce concluded that the challenges presented by climate change will only be met by a common commitment and collective action, shared openly, honestly and evenly between the developed and developing worlds.

webinar climate change
Panellists discuss the threats of climate change in South Asia at TDF’s Nov. 18 debate

Dr Bhargav Krishnan, Convenor, SFC and Coordinator of the Environmental Governance and Policy vertical at the Sustainable Futures Collaborative, looked at governance frameworks by which climate action is mainstreamed across sectors in South Asia, considering it as the cornerstone of effective climate action. He underscored how climate change has affected Indians and their lives in the last two years alone as they face extreme heat events, glacial lake overflow in mountainous regions, storm surges from cyclonic events, etc, which severely impact people’s livelihoods and are likely to grow worse, and for which frameworks are needed in order to adapt. While Cop 29 has largely focused on reducing carbon emissions at source, Krishnan argued that targets are unlikely to be met as various countries have rolled back on commitments and changing political wills in the West, particularly, mean there is more focus on national security and domestic energy needs, which places greater emphasis on developing nations, especially those most vulnerable to the impact of climate change, to focus much of their energy on adaptation. Adapting to climate change does not just mean working to address the immediate effects of climate disasters but also planning to address unforeseen future disasters whose scale we do not know. Krishnan used the example of extreme heat in India, and how its effects can be reduced through the levers of government, as well as stressing that, though climate change is a global issue, adaptation is a deeply local matter.

Adapting to climate change means planning to address unforeseen future disasters

We know that climate change is not a siloed issue, added Krishnan; it is going to affect every aspect of society and of social welfare policy, and that requires us to approach this from across a sectoral lens. So mainstreaming climate across all sectors is the ultimate goal for addressing climate change at a national as well as state level. Additionally, climate change can be viewed as a threat or as an opportunity. For an urban economy like India, Krishnan believed it presents an opportunity, and with effective advance planning, there is a chance to turn it into an economic win for the country. This can be seen in India’s setting of renewable energy targets such as solar and wind, and the steps New Delhi has taken to create international fora to address climate-related questions through, for example, the International Solar Alliance.

Assessing the climate facts and the clear link between disasters and climate change was Benjamin P Horton, Director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore and Professor at the Asian School of Environment at Nanyang Technological University. He said the morale of climate scientists is now at its lowest ever ebb for three main reasons: one is the data, which shows extreme events increasing in frequency and intensity, which is directly linked to climate change – eg five super-typhoons in the Philippines in recent months, US hurricanes and catastrophic floods in Valencia, Spain. The last two years are the warmest on Earth for 125,000 years, said Horton, and people are dying because society doesn’t listen to climate scientists, who have been correctly predicting today’s alarming scenarios for decades. Yet nothing was done. How can we be transitioning from fossil fuels when we burn more carbon than ever? he asked. The second reason for low morale among climate scientists is the absence of action at Cop meetings in reducing greenhouse gases, as CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased 60 per cent since 1995, and this year’s Cop president is using his position to broker oil deals. The third reason is the re-election of Donald Trump, a climate change denier.

It is important to understand that we cannot club all of South Asia together

If we cross the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold, warned Horton, planetary boundaries fail and so does civilisation. 99% of the coral species on planet Earth become extinct, impacting ecosystems and human sustenance; permafrost in the Arctic melts, global sea levels rise, and worse. Although it is no longer deemed appropriate to know that climate change is happening, and that humans are responsible, Horton insisted that society needs to listen to climate experts. Cop meetings cannot be chaired by representatives from petroleum companies, climate advisers cannot be economists or lawyers. So, he pleaded, give climate scientists a chance to find solutions that are so urgently needed, and educate people on the seriousness of the problem.

Dr Indu K Murthy, Principal Research Scientist and Sector Head, Climate at the Environment and Sustainability Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), viewed the science and vulnerability aspects of the central webinar topic. Like previous speakers, she highlighted the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in South Asia, as elsewhere, and considered the factors that make this region so vulnerable, such as geography and environmental vulnerabilities – for example, coastal zones facing threats from rising sea levels and storm surges; glacial melt in Himalayan regions which is disrupting water resources for millions; flooding in river basins. She also spoke about socio-economic vulnerabilities in South Asia from poverty and social inequalities, saying that climate change is a risk multiplier, exacerbating the risk and existing inequalities – eg the livelihoods of  agricultural workers are impacted more than others by climate change.

Society needs to listen to climate experts

aftermath of flooding in India, June 2024
WEIGHT OF WATER: Aftermath of the devastating floods in India, June 2024

Rapid development and urbanisation in certain parts of South Asia leads to increased exposure to heat stress, added Murthy, which then leads to health impacts such as increases in in water-borne diseases and respiratory illnesses. Since many of these countries are still developing, there is limited financial and technical capacity, although in countries such as India, there has been a conscious effort to see how climate can be integrated into the developmental process – for example, the Modi government is pushing for low carbon development. So there is a wide need throughout South Asia for dedicated technologies and finance, as well as disaster management systems.

For Dr Anamika Barua, Professor at the Dept of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati (IITG), the focus was on the transboundary aspect of climate change in South Asia, which underscores the critical importance of regional cooperation. It is very important to understand that we cannot club all of South Asia together, she said, as there are many differential vulnerabilities across the region. The issue is complex, depending, for instance, on inequities across different societies, so you cannot have just one kind of policy that is replicated across countries.

On the trans-boundary nature of climate-induced disasters, Barua stressed that extreme weather events such as erratic rainfall and glacier melt are compounding the existing pressure on these shared water resources that are lifelines for livelihoods, agriculture, etc ,which calls for more enhanced cooperation across South Asia. There is a lack of data-sharing on smaller rivers that are tributaries, which is badly needed, along with communication and early warning systems vis-à-vis flooding. Barua also warned against the politicisation of disasters and the playing of ‘blame games’, which distracts from the root causes of the problem. So the challenges posed by climate change make it imperative for South Asian countries to enhance their cooperation, sharing data, technology, and resources to address shared environmental risks. This could be addressed by a Cop for South Asian countries to come together to discuss and take action on climate issues.

MJ Akbar is the author of several books, including Doolally Sahib and the Black Zamindar: Racism and Revenge in the British Raj, and Gandhi: A Life in Three Campaigns

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