BALANCING ACT
Balancing act
In light of his party’s previous antipathy towards India and affinity with China, Richard Gregson ponders how Sri Lanka’s first Marxist president will manage the relationships
Few people realised back in February that an unassuming Sri Lankan politician then visiting India on an official invitation would, mere months later, make history as the island nation’s first Marxist president. He was none other than Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who had called on India’s external affairs minister S Jaishankar, the then foreign secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra, and national security advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval.
Dissanayake and his team had also visited the Unique Identification Authority of India’s office in Delhi, which issues digital IDs to Indian citizens, and the popular cooperative dairy brand Amul’s processing plant in Anand in the state of Gujarat. The Sri Lankan leader wants to replicate these projects at home.
And soon after the presidential election results were announced on September 22, the Indian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, Santosh Jha, was the first among Colombo’s diplomatic corps to congratulate Dissanayake with a bouquet of flowers. Jha was promptly followed by the Chinese envoy, showing the geopolitical significance of any political change that happens in Sri Lanka, which sits at the intersection of one of the world’s busiest international shipping lanes.
Congratulating the new leader, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote on X: ‘Sri Lanka holds a special place in India’s Neighbourhood First Policy and Vision SAGAR. I look forward to working closely with you to further strengthen our multifaceted cooperation for the benefit of our people and the entire region.’
For India, Sri Lanka is one of its most important neighbours, with whom it has had longstanding cultural, diplomatic, economic, and security ties. No wonder New Delhi keeps a close watch on the happenings in Sri Lanka.
The new Marxist President leads a socialist political alliance called the National People’s Power (NPP), or Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB). Led by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), Dissanayake’s party, the NPP consists of 20 other political parties, workers’ unions, women’s rights groups, and youth organisations.
The JVP has traditionally been a staunchly anti-India political organisation. Dubbing India an ‘expansionist power’, it had opposed any cooperation with New Delhi. As well as harbouring sympathies for Sinhala chauvinism, which often pitted the party against the Tamil minority, the party has had a violent past.
In 1971, the JVP mounted an armed insurrection against the legitimately elected government. Caught off guard, the Sri Lankan government had to appeal for foreign help, including from India, to suppress the rebellion. Over 1,000 people were killed.
After signing the India-Sri Lanka Accord in 1987, India became embroiled in Sri Lanka’s ethnic conflict by sending the Indian Peacekeeping Force to the embattled island. The JVP launched protests against India’s presence. Soon the protests turned violent, and the government’s response was equally brutal. An estimated 60,000 people were killed, including the JVP founder Rohana Wijeweera.
Sri Lanka sits at the intersection of one of the world’s busiest international shipping lanes
Dissanayake was elected to the JVP’s central committee in 1997 and became its leader in 2008. Renouncing violence, the JVP joined mainstream politics and has since apologised for its violent past. Having won the highest-ever tally of 39 seats, the party joined a coalition government with the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) in 2004. But its popularity hit rock bottom in the post-war period following the defeat of the LTTE in 2009.
An astute politician, Dissanayake formed the NPP in 2019 to revive the party’s fortunes. The NPP could not garner support in either the 2019 presidential and 2020 parliamentary elections, getting just 3.16 percent of the votes and winning three seats in Parliament, respectively.
Given the widespread corruption, nepotism and mismanagement plaguing the centrist parties, the NPP began to gain ground among sections of the populace. In the wake of the 2022 economic meltdown, the NPP launched mass protests, opposing the IMF deal and the sale of national assets to foreign entities, including Indian companies.
The NPP emerged as the major force leading the mass mobilisation against the Gotabaya Rajapaksa regime, which forced the incumbent to flee abroad. Following some incidents of violence, the government under the new President Ranil Wickremesinghe launched a crackdown and witch-hunt to bring back a semblance of normalcy.
India has concerns about China’s tightening grip on the island’s resources, in light of JVP’s ideological affinity to the CCP
Unrest and discontent have since continued to simmer among the masses fed up with rule bya small elite belonging to a few families. Dissanayake’s victory, though a close one, marks the beginning of a new era of alternative politics. His poll promises include transparency in governance, zero tolerance for corruption, and lowering taxes and utility bills. ‘We will work within the broad agreement that the IMF has reached within the current government,’ said Harini Amarasuriya, the newly appointed Prime Minister. ‘But we will negotiate certain details, particularly regarding the austerity measures.’
But the country’s Tamil minority still has concerns about JVP. Dissanayake had trailed in most Tamil-dominated districts, where he got fewer votes. Since the end of the civil war, after the LTTE was wiped out in 2009, the community has been seeking devolution of power in Tamil-majority areas in the northern and eastern districts of the island. Almost 15 years have passed since the government promised to share power by devolving political authority and giving more autonomy to the region. Nothing has happened so far.
As Sri Lanka’s immediate neighbour, India has concerns about the Tamil issue, but more so regarding China’s tightening grip on the island’s natural and strategic resources,in light of JVP’s ideological affinity to the Chinese Communist Party. In 2020-21, the JVP opposed the government’s move to offer 49 percent stakes in the state-owned East Container Terminal at Colombo Port to the Adani group. This led to the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government cancelling a tripartite agreement with India and Japan to develop the terminal.
The party has also raised objections to another wind farm project and a deal with Indian Oil Corporation to develop the WWII oil tank farm as a regional ‘bunkering hub’ to supply fuel to commercial vessels crossing the nearby Trincomalee Port. To put the record straight, however, the JVP had also opposed the leasing out of the Hambantota Port to China.
Dissanayake made his position clear in an interview earlier in September, before his election. ‘We don’t want to be sandwiched between China and India. Both are valued friends, and we expect them to become closer partners.’
Outlining his pragmatic approach, he said at his oath-taking ceremony, ‘We need international help – so whatever geopolitical fractures exist around the globe, we will not be afraid to engage all in the best interest of Sri Lanka. We will work with the world.’
Speaking at a forum organised by the Asia Society in New York, S Jaishankar said, ‘We stepped forward when Sri Lanka was facing a very deep economic crisis, and frankly, when no one else did. I’m very glad we did it, and we did it in a timely and substantial manner. We provided 4.5 billion dollars in effective support.’
Replying to a question, he made it clear that ‘what happens politically in Sri Lanka, that’s for their politics to work out… This is a real world; countries adjust to each other and find ways of working it out,’ Jaishankar explained.
Both Dissanayake and Jaishankar have made their point, and eloquently at that.
Richard Gregson is a freelance journalist currently based in Canada