CAPACITY COUNTS
Capacity counts
During a recent interview with StratNews Global’s Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale, author and commentator MJ Akbar discussed the second anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war and its global fallout
As the war in Ukraine rages into its third year, how does one assess the conflict as it stands today? One way, said eminent journalist, author and commentator MJ Akbar in an interview on ‘The Gist’, is to map the first three months of the war with the three months that led into the second anniversary.
Asked about his first thoughts on the conflict, Akbar highlighted Ukraine’s declaration of victory in the first three months, following Russia’s initial stumbles and the reactions of cheerleaders sitting in Western capitals. He did not blame them, as they have never been friendly to Russia, with the Cold War having been cold in name only, and very warm everywhere except Europe, which was kept sanitised, while the rest of the globe – including southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America – was on fire. We paid a huge price for the so-called Cold War, Akbar added, and that war has not stopped.
Although the collapse of the Soviet Union was a defining moment within the Cold War, it was not the end of it; it could simply be called a milestone or a pause, because, to the surprise of the West and its intellectuals, Russia simply refused to roll over. Europeans sometimes just don’t seem to get Russia, Akbar said, as Russia is not Europe. The huge nation’s real economic strength comes from Siberia, one of the richest parts of the world in terms of natural resources. So if the Russian economy today is doing well, it is on the strength of those natural resources which Russia is unlikely to surrender.
Going back to the Russia-Ukraine war, a key point, insisted Akbar, is that the Russians have the capacity to defend their strategic interests, and this has to be factored into Western thinking and the world’s thinking – we underestimate Russia at our peril.
Recalling the turning point of the conflict, Akbar spoke of a televised conference which Putin held with his ministers and defence production team, during which he publicly berated them. Putin understood that war cannot be conducted without defence production; munitions –if that section fails then you are running on empty.
Ukraine’s problem, continued Akbar, is that it has developed a reputation for wasting ammunition at a rate which its friends consider unacceptable. This happens when you get things free. So, while Russia has ramped up its production after the first few stumbles, the Ukrainians are dependent on supplies from friends and allies, or friends and benefactors, and they have not been able to keep pace because the industrial capability in Europe has degraded over the decades, and the chickens are coming home to roost. For 70 years, stressed Akbar, Europe has thought it could outsource its military requirements to America, a factor highlighted by former US President Donald Trump, The Europeans have not been able to put 3% of their GDP into the defence budget so they have nothing there to play with, no flexibility.
Military capability is the essence of any nation’s rise or fall. Akbar cited the example of India, which has strengthened its military capability in the last ten years – not because it wants to invade anyone but to secure its own frontiers; it’s a deterrence. Indeed, defence is deterrence. The age of invasions and conquest is unacceptable in this era of the nation state; we are not in the era of empires. But fear of conflict arising out of different view points on what a border is has not gone away, and certain assertions that may be strategic, that may be expanding areas of influence, require deterrence and capability.
That point brought Akbar to the UK’s role in the Ukraine conflict. Britam has been trying to back Ukraine, at least publicly, and he considered some of the UK analysts’ comments that Ukrainian fighters are resilient, Ukraine itself is resilient, and Russia had better watch out.
The Americans will never relax or compromise on their complete domination of the Pacific
But Akbar believed Britain has now become a ‘Humpty Dumpty’ of the world, at least in this affair. It is sitting on a wall, waiting for a fall, but what is there to fall? Not a single UK strategist should be showing their face at this moment, said Akbar, after the recent failed Trident test launch. And the UK has no ships. Britannia used to rule the waves, but today Britannia fools the waves.
This is all very dangerous, warned Akbar. If the failed test had happened in a Third World country, or India, Britain would have laughed. He warned of the ‘deep cupboard’ called Official Secrets, but added that, thankfully, the British media is still vibrant, with the Sun breaking the story the government wanted to hide.
Akbar also referenced an article from the Times of London, which said that the British were really just building a decoy and fake weapons, so they can draw enemy fire. Yet they continue talking about Ukraine’s resilience. He quoted, too, an American analyst’s comment that the average age of Ukrainian fighters on the front lines is now in the mid-40s. So how are they going to sustain that? They can’t get troops, and morale is gone.
India’s relationship with Iran is one of these stand-alone relationships of world affairs
Without wishing to get into the subject of cause, Akbar stressed Russia’s case that it cannot permit the NATO embrace to go beyond its defining line. Sometimes, you get immature leadership on the other side, or leadership which is pumped up by benefactors into believing what you’re not. Ukraine is not the healthiest story, he added, with huge corruption, for example. The basic reality is that, in Ukraine, the Army, the people have lost their morale. They may genuinely believe that this is their territory and they want to defend it, but belief is one thing; the ability to implement and defend that belief is quite another.
This point led Akbar to the United States, which had initially been at the forefront of pumping up or even propping up Ukraine. But now US conservative analysts and Republican politicians are talking about how America has become distracted from its primary theatre of concern, which is the Indo-Pacific, especially Taiwan. The government has a very good understanding of what the nation’s priorities are, and the US has the money, the technology, the defence capability far beyond what anyone else has right now. If required, they have the capacity to fight everywhere but, after Iraq in particular, they have also learned that they don’t have the capacity to win everywhere. Today, the Houthis might be only a mosquito bite but a mosquito bite can leave malaria, warned Akbar.
He then drew attention to the fact that one of the missiles the Houthis fired was an Israeli missile, adding that we don’t know what is happening in the murky world of arms transfers and arms sales. Although he was not suggesting that Israel is doing this, he said the black market does not distinguish. The Houthis are showing that if they can stop shipping in the Gulf of Aden, the prices of everything in the world will rise.
Another point of the highest importance, said Akbar, is to consider how far – or near – the West Asia war is from the Ukraine war. When they will link up, we don’t know. War doesn’t respect boundaries and there are very serious dangers if people who are supervising and understanding the consequences of these wars don’t realise how quickly this can become a genuine world war.
Turning to the question of Taiwan, Akbar believed that the Americans will never relax or compromise on their complete domination of the Pacific. The Chinese also know that, and while China may be a rising power, he did not think it has risen enough to take on America in the Pacific. The US defence budget is three times that of China, and they are far ahead in technology innovation. But, even so, we should not underestimate Russian technology.
On the subject of Iran, Akbar said that India’s relationship with Iran is one of these stand-alone relationships of world affairs, which has survived the test of decades. Irrespective of everything – India’s good relations with the West and excellent relations with America – this is a relationship which India is ready to do all that is necessary to preserve. India and Iran have a civilisational connection which nobody else can understand. When Iran and India disagree, it is because of Indian national interest (unlike when Pakistan disagrees with Iran, which happens ‘under instruction’).Iran understands India’s strategic autonomy, and understands that India is an independent nation, and no two nations will agree on everything. But, between Pakistan and India, one is a puppet nation and one is an independent nation, and that is the real strength of India-Irean relations.
Regarding the question of Iranian proxies, Akbar said that Iran has built up a multi-front axis and has been doing so for some time. Iran went through eight years of a war with Iraq so they understand that their enemies also fight through proxies; at least this is their belief . So there is no reason why they should not utilise similar strategic methodologies.
Akbar also underscored the belief that so many people have that Hezbollah is one of the confrontation points for Israel. It is, but it is not simply that – Hezbollah is also an Iranian ally on the Mediterranean which is, and has long been, very important. Iran has developed proxies and they have fought back for a year, ten years against enemies in the region. That is why this whole region now looks so aflame with various possibilities and uncertainty.
MJ Akbar is the author of several books, including Doolally Sahib and the Black Zamindar: Racism and Revenge in the British Raj, and Gandhi: A Life in Three Campaigns