August 2024

GREAT POWER, GREATER RESPONSIBILITY

Great power, greater responsibility

Tanya Vatsa looks ahead to the changes Iran’s new reformist president may try – or even wish – to effect, and assesses the constraints he faces

Almost two decades since the end of reformist president Mohammad Khatami’s term in 2005, the people of Iran have voted again for reformist rule. The country’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was Khatami’s health minister and the only non-conservative candidate contesting for the highest office.

The approval of his candidature by Ayatollah Khamenei’s Guardian Council came as a surprise, considering they have long and vehemently guarded the ultra-conservative machinery of governance, led by the Ayatollah himself. The late president Ebrahim Raisi was not only an embodiment of the state’s ideology but also a prospective successor to the Ayatollah. He consolidated hardline politics in Iran, entirely thwarting the reformist movement with a widespread clampdown on the country’s rebellious youth.

Under Khatami, reformists advocated for gradual change in Iran. The distinction between them and the protesters who took to the streets in large numbers from 2022 to 2023 lies in the latter’s disillusionment with the Iranian body politic. These protesters, largely comprising Iran’s youth, demanded a complete dismantling of the entrenched elitist the ocratic regime by way of a revolution. Their simmering discontent was not simply targeted against the conservatives but also reflected widespread disappointment with the failure of the reformists to effect any substantial change.

Ebrahim Raisi
SUCCESSOR: Iran’s late president Ebrahim Raisi was a prospective successor to the Ayatollah

Their brimming disaffection has been evident in the dwindling voter turnout since the 2020 elections, with this year’s poll witnessing a record low in the number of people who cast their votes. No candidate won the first round and hence Pezeshkian’s victory came during the run-offs, necessitated by the dismally low turnout and the high numbers of blank/invalid votes.

Now, Pezeshkian faces challenges on three major fronts.

First, on the domestic front he must win back the faith of the people, especially the protesting masses who faced severe oppression under the Raisi regime’s hardline moral policing. Second, on the international front, he must try to bring Iran back from populist isolation and open wider channels in the foreign relations landscape. Third, on the political front, he might have to find his place of power within the entrenched clerical elites who have shaped the prominent political discourse for Iran over the past two decades.

On the political front, Pezeshkian might have to find his place of power within the entrenched clerical elites

He has started off well by addressing the Ayatollah respectfully at every campaign speech, declaring that he has no intentions of indulging in ideological conflicts. At the same time, he has highlighted the fact that he was chosen by the people over more conservative candidates, and has thus made the need for change deliberately apparent.

However, given how much the reformists have lost trust among the Iranian people, this latest change of the presidential guard is not being hailed as monumental. Pezeshkian is poised to play a pragmatic game wherein continuation of Raisi’s policies is envisaged. Cementing economic ties with Iran’s Asian neighbours is expected to be at the forefront, especially with Russia and China.

The creation of this ‘resistance economy’ is characterised by increased association with key Asian neighbours, including participation in multilateral bodies such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and membership of BRICS. Despite this potential for diversification, the current Iranian economy is floundering, marred by rising inflation and unemployment.

This situation gives the new leader a golden opportunity to restore faith in the possibility of reform

In light of such public woes, Pezeshkian is most likely to restart engagement with the West, which flat lined after the Trump administration’s erratic unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, in 2018.

A tough sanctions regime has critically impacted Iran and its ‘nuclear economy’ solution. That, coupled with the fact that Pezeshkian’s presidential bid was backed by the former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who played a significant role in brokering the Iran Nuclear Deal with the P5+1 (the US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany) during Barack Obama’s leadership, makes it likely that the new Iranian leader will revive the former deal and reduce the scourge of sanctions.

There is, however, a crucial limitation which lies beyond Pezeshkian’s power and has much to do with the decision of the American people. US elections are just around the corner and Donald Trump is back in the race with a significant chance of victory. With his previous stance towards Iran and his reluctance to give peaceful progression of the nuclear deal a chance, the reinstating of relations with the West seems like a Herculean task. 

Masoud Pezeshkian
GOOD START: Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s new leader

While these are the broader external issues which will also be influenced by the Ayatollah and his superior military corps, with the presidency Pezeshkian has also been entrusted with the responsibility of stitching back together the eroded fabric of national trust in the government. One of his greatest tasks will be the realisation of social liberalisation without impeding the theocratic roots guarded by Iran’s uber-conservative higher authorities. Balancing these diverging interests at such a fraught time, when the Israel-Gaza conflict is teetering on the brink of escalation, with the involvement of the Tehran-led Axis of Resistance, puts Pezeshkian in a precarious position.

It can be argued that it is this very precarity which encouraged the Guardian Council to allow the election of a reformist, in order to watch him fail and thus entirely erode public faith in all ideologies except the dominant conservative one. Yet it is also this situation which gives Pezeshkian a golden opportunity to take a gamble, restore faith in the possibility of reform, and prove to the world that an orderly revolution still stands a chance in the ocratic Iran, under the Ayatollah’s watchful eye. For no establishment in the country is in a position to hinder any economic or social progress at this juncture.

Whether the election of this moderate reformist has the potential to be the beginning of transformation for the country, or will be a mere continuation of previous political puppeteering, remains an intriguing question.

Tanya Vatsa is currently the Geopolitical and Predictive Intelligence specialist at Inquest Advisories in India, as well as Editor at the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Dept of Defence, United States of America. She completed her Master’s in Legal Studies at the University of Edinburgh after obtaining a law degree from Lucknow’s National Law University, India