Given the freezing Himalayan cold, progress on any withdrawals will be possible only when the winter snows melt in March. In the meantime, the militaries of both sides will remain on alert. Negotiations with China in the days ahead are going to be tough. But the continuing dialogue between Asia’s two largest armies has helped in keeping tensions under control.

India’s relations with the US have been steadily improving over the past two decades. President-elect Biden visited India in 2013 in his capacity as US Vice President during President Obama’s tenure. But Mr Biden’s most notable action in relations with India was a letter he wrote, when he was the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, to President Bush, supporting moves to end nuclear sanctions against India. He also led a successful campaign to persuade India to cooperate with the US in mobilising support from developing countries for the Agreement on Climate Change. India duly provided that support at the 2015 Climate Change Summit in Paris. Indeed, the US has been impressed by the seriousness with which Prime Minister Modi dealt with rallyingthe backing of developing nations on environmental issues during the Paris Summit. Nevertheless, while India has, thus far, successfully maintained a delicate balance in its relations with the US and also with Russia, there is recognition that the road ahead will be more difficult.

The focus of attention in January 2021 is going to be on the visit of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson as the Chief Guest for India’s Republic Day. It is clear that major European powers like the UK, France and Germany are conscious of developments in the Indo-Pacific region. Although Europe initially welcomed the rise of China, there are now serious concerns about Beijing’s territorial ambitions and its disregard for international law in its maritime policies. China presently has boundary disputes with virtually all its maritime neighbours. It has shown total disregard for the provisions of the Law of Seas by enforcing its presence within the maritime boundaries of various neighbours, including Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei. Beijing has shown a similar propensity on its land borders with India, which was evident in its deep incursion into Ladakh last year, in violation of what was a mutually agreed Line of Actual Control. It is against this background that India and the US signed two landmark agreements in November last year, including one on the exchange of ‘geospatial intelligence’. Recent naval exercises amongst the navies of the Quad have taken place across the shores of the Arabian Sea, and the Strait of Malacca.