SHOULD THE WORLD FEAR CHINA?
China’s position in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape has long come underintense scrutiny from the world’s commentators. But in Should the World Fear China?, a collection of essays by retired senior PLA colonel Zhou Bo,we are offered some valuable insights into how China itself views itsplace in the world.
There could be no stronger recommendation than that quoted on the dust jacket by the former Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs, George Yeo: ‘China is now shaking the world. What is sorely needed is cold-blooded analysis, which means understanding China’s history and reality… Zhou Bo writes as an insider with a deep understanding of the foreign mind, and offers a Chinese perspective shorn of propaganda.’
Zhou’s essays unpack China’s own view of its current global role. Its image, Zhou believes, depends on where its beholders are standing. For the United States, it is a strategic competitor, the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it. For Europe, it is a ‘partner for cooperation, an economic competitor and a systematic rival’, while for NATO, China is a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
In the Global South, however,where China considers itself a ‘natural member’, Beijing has a far more positive image. Indeed, Zhou Bo says he collated 102 of his essays and opinion pieces, written between 2013 and 2024, in an attempt to answer some of the most important, relevant and sometimes conflicting questions about China today.
There is no better way for China to demonstrate its peaceful rise than by helping with global governance as a responsible power
Key among these is whether China really does want to reshape the liberal international order, as the US claims. In one essay he contends that there is no such order, arguing that this is a Euro centric view with an air of Western triumphalism. It is too simplistic,viewingWestern-made regimes and institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and GATT/WTO as the international order itself, when they are just parts of a larger whole. The international order, he asserts, is far more complicated.
Zhou discloses that his book’s title was the first question he was asked in an interview with the German newspaper DieZeit in 2023, a question he was unable to forget. ‘For me, it best represents the uncertainty of the West towards China, which has brought twitches of anxiety and even fear.’
Analysts have greatly exaggerated China’s supposed threat to Western democratic systems and international order, argues Zhou, referring to a 2023 Freedom House report which stated that, for the past 17 years, liberal democracy around the world has been in a steady decline that risks continuing. But that is not China’s doing, he insists. China has not promoted its socialist values abroad, nor has it been directly involved in any war since 1979. Despite its partnership with Russia, it has not supplied lethal aid to what he calls ‘the Russian war effort in Ukraine’.
Rather, Zhou maintains that as the world’s top trader and beneficiary of globalisation, China is deeply embedded in the existing international order and wishes to safeguard the system.But at a time when Washington is focused on competition with Beijing, it is useless for Beijing to insist on cooperation when such calls fall on deaf years. What both sides can agree on is a fundamental red line – not letting their competition slide into outright confrontation.
To that end, China and the US must remain willing to talk, to avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations, and to reassure an anxious world. The real danger, believes Zhou, is that an unexpected incident might trigger a conflict that neither side has anticipated or could possibly control. He identifies the South China Sea as the likeliest flashpoint, with long-standing tensions over conflicting territorial claims.
No one knows how the China-US relationship might evolve, he adds, but for competitors to not become enemies in a new Cold War, they need to implement a long list of confidence-building measures.
Zhou also assesses the ever-present threat of a nuclear war hanging over the Korean Peninsula. In his view, the least desirable response to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile tests could be a pre-emptive strike by the United States. The reason North Korea wants to develop nuclear weapons is for survival, he says; its worst fear is a US strike to effect regime change. The first step is for the US to convince the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that it has no such plans.
As for the Quad grouping – the US, India, Japan and Australia – isolating China,Zhou spells out the dangers of this. Comparing China’s Belt and Road Initiative with America’s Indo-Pacific strategy, he says that, while the BRI is open to all, it is hard to imagine an Indo-Pacific strategy that accepts China.
Much has been said about how China and India are jostling for leadership of the Global South. Yet Zhou Bo insists that China harbours no intention of becoming the leader of the Global South, and India is unlikely to become one even if it wants to. He does not conceal his disdain for India’s global aspirations:‘With liberal democracy in steady decline, India’s self-description as the world’s greatest democracy adds little dazzle.’
Disputed areas along the Sino-Indian border have seen many military standoffs, including a deadly clash in 2020. But in the Indian Ocean, Zhou believes India frets unnecessarily about China’s increased economic and military presence.
China has grown into a pole in our multipolar world, and India could one day become another. If this is to be a blessing for the Global South, both Asian giants must serve as anchors rather than competitors in our volatile world.
Zhou also offers a pertinent perspectiveon China’s military power. In 2019 he wrote an essay about the future of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, already one of the world’s strongest militaries. In an effort to allay concerns about China’s intentions with such a massive army, he underlines that there is no better way for China to demonstrate its peaceful rise than by helping with global governance as a responsible power. Indeed, China has set a pattern for global security governance that places primacy on addressing non-traditional threats such as piracy, terrorism and natural disasters, and exercises restraint in the use of force, while adhering to international cooperation.
Since the Trump administration, a vicious circle of action and reaction between the US and China has spiralled. It culminated in 2022 when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, despite China’s warnings. The PLA response was an unprecedented military exercise in six areas around Taiwan that effectively sealed off the island for three days.
How to avoid a conflict that neither side wants? The simple answer, Zhou suggests, is to let China believe that a peace reunification is possible in line with the One-China principle. He urges the US not to allow the Taiwan issue to hurt its all-important relationship with China.
As China grows ever closer to a global role that is centre stage, Zhou believes that how China perceives the worldmatters all the more. If Beijing believes its security environment has worsened to such a degree that it has to greatly increase its military budget, it will set its relationship with others in a dangerous situation. However, if China remains confident and does not necessarily react to perceived threats with military means, it becomes a stabiliser in the region.
Inevitably, as a former senior PLA officer, Zhou Bo presents a positive and benign image of China and its formidable military power. Yet he also displays an impressive understanding of Western concerns about how it will choose to wield this power. With this book, he has made an important contribution by giving us a rare insider’s view of China as it consolidates its position as a leading global power.
Rita Payne, born in Assam, India, is President Emeritus of the Commonwealth Journalists Association, and former Asia Editor, BBC World News (TV)