TURNING THE TIDE
Turning the tide
Yvonne Gill considers how Asia’s security frameworks and the tenacity and adaptability of regional markets will be tested by changing US policies
President Donald Trump’s second term, characterised by a clear shift in US foreign policy, is resonating far beyond the corridors of power in Washington, from the streets of New Delhi and Jakarta to the diplomatic chambers in Tokyo and Singapore.
A series of policy decisions from the Trump administration’s revived ‘America First’ agenda includes tariff increases, demands on allies for a greater share in defence spending, and a reworking of maritime capabilities.
Beginning in early April 2025, the government put tariffs on imports from nations with significant trade surpluses with the United States. Goods imported from powerhouse economies such as China and India have been subjected to tariffs as high as 12 percent.
Indian textile producers in Gujarat, for instance, who formerly saw strong demand from American consumers, now confront the grim possibility of a shrunken export market. The tariff has led to lower export orders, which is hurting small businesses and local employment. The Indian government is urgently pushing for a bilateral trade agreement to mitigate the impact.
Increased US tariffs also threaten India’s agricultural sectors and other export-driven businesses. But proactive trade talks show a determination by the government to protect its economic interests. Aware of the larger strategic consequences, Indian policy-makers are advocating changes that would preserve a balance between rivalling global forces and help lower economic vulnerabilities.
Meanwhile, small exporters in nations like Vietnam and Indonesia are struggling with the domino effect of US tariffs. Business owners in these countries are looking for new markets or improving production techniques to stay competitive. The regional economic recalibration has generated a fresh interest in multilateral trade agreements. ASEAN leaders are pushing for systems less dependent on any one global power.
In terms of security, the Trump administration’s policy is clearly transactional. Long-time allies like Japan and South Korea are being forced to bear a larger share of the expenditure related to maintaining American forces on their territories.
Increasing defence fundingcould, according to experts, severely constrict the resources available for social welfare programmes and education. Public debate in South Korea, where the government recently consented to increase its troop-hosting contribution by more than 8per cent, exhibits both a feeling of obligation and rising dissatisfaction against the decision. Likewise, in Japan, people living close to US military bases in Okinawa have voiced conflicting emotions; some value the need for the security umbrella, while others worry about the long-term economic impact of maintaining more than 54,000 troops that would cost Japan a staggering $8.6 billion.
Policymakers in New Delhi are closely watching US-China interactions
Although ASEAN countries are not officially part of the US security alliance, the general US attitude in the region is compelling them to reconsider strengthening their security infrastructures. To hedge against a changing security environment, countries like Singapore and Malaysia are actively increasing their defence budgets and looking for closer cooperation among themselves. This recalibration emphasises a more general regional trend: the need for a balanced security framework that takes into consideration the changing US policies without sacrificing national autonomy.
President Trump’s emphasis on reviving the US shipbuilding sector has also caused ripples throughout Asia’s maritime corridors. Among the administration’s proposals are actions like starting collaborations with Finland and Canada to construct specialised icebreakers and charging port fees on China-linked vessels. In disputed areas like the Arctic, where the melting polar ice cap is opening up new sea routes of global strategic relevance, these initiatives are part of a larger strategy meant to assert US maritime dominance.
Forums such the ASEAN Regional Forum and East Asia Summitare viewed as vital buffers against outside pressures
For maritime workers in Southeast Asia, these policies have mixed consequences. For example, dockworkers and shipping companies in Singapore’s busy port keep a close eye on US policies as these might lower dependence on Chinese ship building, a key player in the area. Simultaneously, ASEAN countries have increased their own maritime security activities in the South China Sea. Regional dynamics have been further complicated by the convergence of US strategic goals with ASEAN’s long-standing worries about territorial conflicts with China, which has driven local decision makers to negotiate between US interests and maintaining regional stability.
The new US policy changes has alsosparked increased diplomatic activity. US Senator Steve Daines recently visited Beijing to clear the way for a future summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Reflecting the administration’s willingness to engage directly, despite strained ties, this visit centred on topics like trade imbalances and the fentanyl crisis.
In his replies, Chinese Premier Li Qiang underlined the need fordialogue over conflict.
Many in South Asia and ASEAN, however, view these diplomatic overtures with scepticism. Policymakers in New Delhi are closely watching US-China interactions, knowing that any mis-step might undermine India’s own strategic initiatives.
ASEAN leaders, on the other hand, have started their own multilateral talks, stressing the need for a stable, rules-based world order. Such regional initiatives seek to offer a different platform for cooperation, one that would be less vulnerable to the ebbs and flows of US domestic politics. Countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand are actively diversifying their strategic and economic alliances. One illustration of how ASEAN countries are asserting their independence and progressive goals under changing US policies is Thailand’s ground-breaking decision to legalise same-sex marriage, a move praised both at home and abroad.
Increasingly outspoken on the need for a multipolar approach to regional security, ASEAN leaders are eager to increase economic links not just inside the bloc but also with rising partners all across Asia. This approach both reinforces a shared regional identity and balances against the changing American stance. Forums such the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit, where dialogue and cooperation are viewed as vital buffers against outside pressures, often highlight a recurring theme of unity and diversification.
The possibility of a new nuclear arms race is among the most disturbing aspects of the changing US policies. Trump’s policies, which have cast doubt on the dependability of long-term US security commitments, have caused some Asian allies to rethink developing their own nuclear capacities. For instance, in Japan and South Korea, there is discussions around the feasibility of native nuclear projects as a hedge against unpredictable American security guarantees.
Across South Asia the scenario is equally sensitive. An acknowledged nuclear power, India has always had a strong deterrent approach in its regional security calculus. Trump’s combative position and the administration’s changing alliances, meanwhile, have sparked controversy in neighbouring countries regarding the future of nuclear non-proliferation. Navigating an ever more complicated security situation, Pakistan’s unpredictability as a disruptive player in the region is a serious concern. In areas where traditional rivalries could easily exacerbate present tensions, the spectre of a renewed arms race is particularly concerning.
These anxieties highlight the critical need for continuous dialogue and multilateral structures that could prevent a military build-up spiralling off into a flashpoint. Asian countries negotiating this new terrain are working towards a consensus of prudent pragmatism, whether it is renegotiating trade agreements, strengthening defence capabilities, or increasing regional cooperation – all to ensure a stable, prosperous, and sovereign future in the face of present uncertainties.
Indeed, Asia’s tenacity and adaptability will be put to the test in coming years as they work to strike a balance between the appeal of strong alliances and the demands of regional integration and self-determination.
Yvonne Gill is a freelance journalist based in London