EXCEPTION TO THE RULE?
Exception to the rule?
A recent Democracy Forum panel discussion looked ahead to what the future might hold for Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad
Will Syria prove to be the exception to the rule that has been created over the past several decades, in the aftermath of toppled Arab autocracies? How might reconstruction of the country take place, and why does accountability for Syrian war crimes matter? These were some of the questions considered by a recent panel convened by The Democracy Forum to discuss what lies ahead for Syria and the region in a post-Assad era.
The emergence of HTS from the Syria branch of al-Qaeda as a leading force in the country’s transition has raised crucial questions about governance, international recognition and the risk of Syria further fragmenting, said The Forum’s President Lord Bruce. Given that HTS is still rooted in a brand of Salafist Islamism, he cited a warning by Sir John Sawers, former head of MI6, that ‘Syria is on a path to fragmentation that would be a lost opportunity and a gift to terrorist groups such as Isis and al-Qaeda’. Nevertheless, at a February conference convened by HTS in Damascus, leader Ahmed al-Sharaa promised to unite Syria, steering it towards an inclusive future; form a transitional justice body to ‘heal the wounds… after decades of dictatorship’; draft a national constitution, and ban armed groups operating outside a new state structure. However, it is unclear how Syria can follow a path to a democratic and inclusive political system, said Lord Bruce. In recent days almost 1,000 civilians were killed in a surge in violence in the north-west, raising the spectre of renewed civil war. Clearly the carnage in Alawite areas is indicative of Syria’s fragmentation. The Kurds have their own enclaves in the north, while the Druze, and other militias in the south, continue to maintain a sphere of influence. Israel backs Druze, Turkey backs the Sunni Arab groups, and the US backs the Kurds, while Russia still hopes to retain its influence. So external powers are involved partly to protect their borders from chaos, and partly because they see an opportunity to control Syria’s future. Although HTS is now the backbone of the new government, most of northern Syria is still under the control of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, while the SDF oversee 95% of Syria’s oil and gas reserves.
Al-Sharaa’s government’s shortcomings also reflect the weakness of Syria’s state, added Lord Bruce, the result of 14 years of civil war which has shrunk the economy by 85%, leaving an impoverished society with spiralling prices where more than 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line. Clearly Syria needs a vast amount of foreign investment to pay for reconstruction of vital infrastructure; but equally pressing is the need to ameliorate the current sanctions regime which will have to be lifted to avoid economic collapse and the very real risk of Syria becoming a failed state, spreading mayhem to its neighbours. Lord Bruce concluded with a concerning quote from a seasoned Middle East commentator, that ‘many Syrians want Ahmed al-Sharaa to succeed because the alternative is too bleak to ponder’.
Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow on the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), saw no precedent for the removal of an Arab authoritarian that didn’t lead either to more repression and/or some level of state dysfunction, if not state failure – for example, Egypt after Mubarak, Libya after Gaddafi – and asked what he saw as ‘a question that will hang over this panel’ and persist in the months and years to come: whether or not Syria will prove to be an exception to this rule that has been created over the past several decades. He suggested that the lift to make Syria the exception is going to be a very heavy one, while, regarding the country’s internal dynamic, the challenges are galactic. If there was a honeymoon in the transition from the Assads to HTS and what is now a transitional government under the presidency of al-Sharaa, Miller believed that honeymoon ended in the first week of March with an upsurge instigated by a very well organised core of pro-Assad loyalists, former military commanders and other mid-level figures of the regime, many drawn in the military from Syria’s fourth division, which was heavily influenced by the Iranians. These attacks on al-Sharaa’s security forces were likely carried out by foreign fighters, civilians, and by Syrian National Army elements, which are proving to be, in some cases, a very disruptive force. This is going to be some sort of test of al-Sharaa’s credibility, added Miller, and he wondered if there will be any accountability re. what happened, suggesting that this will be a test as to whether or not the government has that capacity to function.
Accountability has been a persistent demand of civil society ever since Syria’s Civil War started
Miller also pointed to suspicions among Syrian minority groups that HTS, even at its most organised, has not produced the kind of transparency and inclusion that many hoped would result, and this is obviously still a work in progress that will be an extremely heavy lift, partly because the central government does not control the country – for example, there are Kurds to the northeast, the Islamic State in central Syria, etc, so integration into an organised military command is going to be extremely difficult. Additionally, Miller touched on the issue of external challenges, which are extraordinarily complicated, as the main players in Syria, Iran and Russia, are clearly receding, though their influence is not to be ruled out entirely, and Turkey now occupies a much more central position, with an interest in Syria as a buffer zone in the north and hopes of benefiting from whatever reconstruction projects occur once/ if sanctions are our ultimately lifted. As for the Israelis, they have acted, in the wake of the shadow of October 7th, to increase their security along the Syrian border, while the US role, Miller said, it hard to divine, as Donald Trump has taken very little interest in Syria. Yet there is great urgency for economic recovery and humanitarian aid. In a way, concluded Miller, Syrians have suffered so much and the bar is so low that any progress to begin to stabilise the country and take it in a different direction would be welcome. However, experience told him that in this conflict-ridden region, it’s going to be extremely difficult.
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Focusing on local dynamics was Munqeth Othman Agha, a Non-Resident Scholar at the Middle East Institute, who addressed issues of reconstruction and the recovery of public sector funds. What happened in Syria would have been unthinkable three or four months ago, he said, and nobody was prepared for what to do next, including those who toppled Assad; hence we see this is a very difficult and challenging transition. On the ground in Syria, everybody is hopeful, they are ambitious, but also very worried, as the challenges facing them are huge, both internally and externally. Regarding reconstruction, it is useful to look at the patterns of destruction in order to understand that, said Agha. Most major urban centres in Syria are heavily destroyed, but the destruction is especially distributed in densely populated and low-income areas. So, the poorest portion of the population bore the heaviest impact of the conflict, which has placed another obstacle for reconstruction, as these areas are not only harder to reconstruct, but there is also the dilemma of whether to upgrade or simply reproduce them. There are, too, high challenges in terms of ownership because much of the population has been displaced. But the biggest challenge, said Agha, is sanctions, which deter foreign visitors and investment as well as deterring local businesses.
The elephant in the room is that HTS has its roots in al-Qaeda, and affiliations with the Islamic State
In terms of public sector reform, Agha spoke of the hundreds of thousands of ‘shadow’ employees during the Assad regime, employed based on clientelism or nepotism, who were a heavily load on the budget public budget. So, the first thing the new government did was to sack these employees, which caused instability as 100 000 people lost their income. Also, employment during Assad’s rule had a sectarian aspect, which might be a source of instability in the future, as might the security and army sector, which also need reform.
Highlighting the need for genuine process when it comes to accountability for what has happened in Syria, not acts of revenge and show trials, was Federica D’Alessandra, Deputy Director of the Institute for Ethics, Law, and Armed Conflict at the University of Oxford, and British Academy Global Innovation Fellow for the Global Order and Institutions Program at CEIP. Why does accountability matter, she asked, especially considering so many other priorities, including very scarce resources? What do we mean by accountability and what might this even look like in a context like Syria? Accountability has been a persistent demand of civil society ever since Syria’s Civil War started, and these groups have been consistently united in their demands for justice, especially vis-à-vis Assad. D’Alessanrda cited some of the atrocities his regime committed, including the use of chemical weapons, systematic torture, executions and ‘disappearances’, and discussed the OPCW joint investigative mechanism’s mandate, which was vetoed by Russia. Reparations and justice/ accountability go hand in hand in any national reconciliation strategies, she added, and are, in fact, foundational pillars.
Syria’s continuing instability and weakness was an area of concern for Karen Sudkamp, Associate Director, Infrastructure, Immigration, and Security Operations Program at RAND Homeland Security Research Division. One hopes that there is the potential for regrowth or for reconstruction and stability, she said, but it’s going to be a long road, with the al-Sharaa administration facing internal and external challenges. Sudkamp spoke of three different kinds of categories of security concerns for the interim government, which Syria’s regional partners, and the international community, should really be thinking about as well, to help rebuild long-term security and stability in Syria. Security concerns don’t exist in a vacuum, they often intersect with each other. Re. the internal situation, Sudkamp wondered whether the HTS-led interim government can deliver on its promises of national cohesion, security and a better life than most Syrians have lived under for the past 14 years, or longer. There is a lot of discussion about the diversity of the Syrian population and how former president Bashar, al-Assad played into these divisions to keep the population fractured so he could remain in power for his long as possible. But for the country to move forward, trust needs to be built between communities, but also between the Syrian population, in HTS.
The accountability process is going to be really important. Yet the elephant in the room is that HTS has its roots in al-Qaeda, and affiliations with the Islamic State, and there are concerns among the population about what that means for governance, and what HTS’ vision truly is for Syria. We also need to really wonder, added Sudkamp, whether HTS can control the use of force within Syria, eg in the north-west, where fighting was seen earlier in the month. So this is a huge issue of being able to build trust accountability, especially given the use of mis- and disinformation about who was responsible for the first attacks, This is an area where other Syrian minorities are clearly taking note about the intentions and the capabilities of the interim government,
Concluding the discussion, the panellists were generally in accord that the narrative for change must be driven by Syrians themselves, who have proven to be incredibly resilient as a population over the Civil War, and will tell us their vision for the future.
MJ Akbar is the author of several books, including Doolally Sahib and the Black Zamindar: Racism and Revenge in the British Raj, and Gandhi: A Life in Three Campaigns
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