Aug & Sept 2025

New currency cold war

New currency cold war

In the wake of the recent SCO summit, Yvonne Gill examines the significance of the rupee in a de-dollarizing world, and the central role that India can play in a multipolar financial order

Three men made headlines at the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin this summer: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The pictures were striking: leaders of Asia’s biggest powers standing next to each other and calling for a ‘multipolar financial order’ while taking exception to the US dollar’s continued status as the world’s reserve currency. Together with other representatives from the Global South, the trio affirmed that the dollar was not just a way to do business, but also a political tool that was used in sanctions, to change the flow of global credit, and to put costs on developing economies that could least afford them. 

Unlike China’s, India’s strategy has been nuanced and gradual

The SCO’s strong focus on breaking the dollar’s hold on the world is a big change for a group that generally focussed on regional security. Its latest stance also fits into the bigger picture of the BRICS, which is at the forefront of trying out new ways to hold reserves, make payments outside of the SWIFT system, and move away from the dollar. These strategies now go well beyond the BRICS five and into Africa, Latin America, and even parts of Asia that have always been tied to the Western-led global financial order. 

And more and more, India is at the centre of this change, for both practical and political reasons.
Few nations outside the developed West would assert that the Bretton Woods institutions have served their interests. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, important components of the global economic development system, are now being accused of keeping countries dependent and conditional. Dollar-denominated debts put weak economies at risk of changes in exchange rates and the decisions of the US Federal Reserve. This dissatisfaction has only grown stronger in the 2020s. Higher US rates have caused debt crises in Africa, and unilateral sanctions have cut off entire economies from SWIFT transfers. The dollar’s dominance in commodities trade, especially energy, has made developing countries vulnerable to changes in exchange rates. 

Pic of IMF and World Bank logos
FAILING TO SERVE: The IMF and World Bank are now being accused of keeping countries dependent

The 2030s could see not just one currency replacing the dollar, but a pluralist financial world

The desire to get rid of the dollar has grown beyond mere academic debate. What used to be a minor topic of conversation among left-wing Latin Americans is now a major topic of debate at the SCO and BRICS, thanks in part to middle powers like India and China and Russia. 

Unlike China’s, which openly pushes for the yuan to become a new reserve currency, India’s strategy been nuanced and gradual. India has been quietly working on its regulatory framework for the rupee to become an international currency. The Special Rupee Vostro Account (SRVA) system, which was set up in 2022, is a pivot of this experiment. Foreign banks can hold rupees and settle trade directly with SRVAs, so they don’t have to change them to dollars first. Russia has fully accepted this mechanism. By the end of 2025, more than 90% of trade between India and Russia will be in rupees and rubles, instead of dollars or euros. Most of this trade is oil going east and pharmaceuticals or machinery going west. As Western sanctions have hurt Moscow, trading in rupees is a way for it to survive. It gives New Delhi both energy security and a way to cut down on its reliance on the dollar. More importantly, it helps exporters and banks learn how to keep a currency stable around the world by managing liquidity, settlement times, hedging exchange risk, and recycling surpluses into Indian bonds and stocks. 

The Reserve Bank of India has made it easier for non-residents to open rupee-denominated accounts abroad, allowed rupee trade credit facilities, and even thought about letting Indian banks lend rupees to people in other countries. Plans also include global infrastructure platforms like UPI (Unified Payments Interface) for use across borders. This means that India’s success in fintech at home will become a part of currency diplomacy.  

India is still being careful, though. Beijing wants to make the yuan more international, but New Delhi doesn’t yet say that the rupee should completely replace the dollar. Instead, its motto is ‘optional’: every trading partner should be able to deal with India in rupees. That way of thinking is less scary and pragmatic. 

India is also weighing options like using central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for trade settlement. The Reserve Bank’s digital rupee pilot has grown to include wholesale cross-border transactions. There are already talks at the SCO about how to connect CBDCs to regional networks that can work together. 

This digital bet has two benefits for India: it can speed up settlement, avoid Western financial plumbing like SWIFT, and lower costs for small exporters. Digital settlement can also help ease the rupee’s liquidity problems by linking it to programmable smart contracts for trade credit and swap deals. New Delhi sees a chance to make the rupee a part of a digital-first trading bloc where the dollar is not the natural reference point. Russia, Iran, and even ASEAN partners have shown early interest in CBDC pilots. 

It would be naïve to think that de-dollarization is only a BRICS story. Even US allies in Asia, like Singapore, South Korea and Japan, are trying out different ways to protect themselves from too much exposure to the dollar. The Local Currency Settlement Framework has made it easier for businesses in ASEAN to send invoices in regional currencies like the rupiah, baht and ringgit. Japan and South Korea are starting to trade more in yen and won, especially since the dollar’s value changes a lot under different US presidents, making it harder to hedge. Singapore has set up its fintech ecosystem to support multi-currency settlement networks, making it a neutral hub in a payment system that is becoming more and more fragmented around the world. 

Africa isn’t far behind either. The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) now lets people clear payments in local African currencies, almost right away. BRICS-backed banks like the New Development Bank (NDB) have also started lending money for big infrastructure projects outside of dollar channels. 

India has a long history of trading with Africa, so it sees potential here: rupee settlements can use PAPSS frameworks to offer a reliable, convertible but non-dollar option. Indian banks have already opened SRVAs with banks in Kenya, Tanzania, and Ghana. 

The idea of a new BRICS reserve currency, called the ‘Unit’, is probably the most daring. In 2024, Russia released prototypes that were backed by gold to make them more trustworthy. There are mixed reactions to the plan. Beijing and Moscow see it as a direct attack on the dollar, while India is worried about giving too much power to a supranational instrument that China could control with its huge monetary power. 

Instead, India wants to strengthen parallel infrastructure, such as BRICS Clear, the in-house settlement platform; the Interbank Cooperation Mechanism for instant transfers; and insurance and reinsurance pools that are safe from Western sanctions. India’s fingerprints can be seen in these efforts: they are careful and gradual, but they are having a bigger and bigger impact on shaping the options instead of completely rejecting them. 

But geopolitics gives it a boost. As sanctions grow, the dollar becomes more and more weaponised, and Western institutions seem less and less concerned with the needs of the Global South, the case for ‘some alternative’ gets stronger. India is in a unique position to take advantage of this because it has credibility in both Western and non-Western groups. 

If all goes well, the 2030s could see not just one currency replacing the dollar, but a pluralist financial world. For example, the yuan could be used in parts of Asia, the rupee in South Asia and Africa, regional currencies in ASEAN, PAPSS in Africa, and maybe even a BRICS Unit to keep things stable. 

That once-idealistic vision is now the main idea that ties BRICS and SCO together. And India, with its nuanced approach, could not only be a player but also a quiet architect of the world after the dollar.

Tehran sent more than 400 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones to Israeli cities

Although unlikely, a direct confrontation between Iran and the US, with Iran hitting at American assets in the Gulf, may result in a prolonged and devastating war in the region.Neutral mediators must work in earnest to bring about a truce at the earliest.

Moreover, it is time the International Criminal Court (ICC) looks into war crimes being committed in Gaza. Finally, we need to return to diplomacy, which includes bringing back the JCPOA nuclear accord with guarantees from other countries. The world’s inaction must stop; only urgent, balanced diplomacy, which faces the unpalatable and painful truth that both aggressors and facilitators must be held accountable, can stop more killings and destruction.

YS Gill is a political analyst.