September 2024

PUSHING PEACE

Pushing peace

A recent prisoner swap deal between Russia and the West has been hailed as a diplomatic coup, so why have all efforts at détente in the Ukraine war failed? Asks  Amit Agnihotri

Ahistoric prisoner swap deal between the West and Russia, the first since the height of the Cold War, has aptly been described as a ‘feat of diplomacy’. Yet the development has left many in the world wondering why, if this can be achieved, have all attempts at reaching a détente in the Ukraine war proved fruitless?

The Ukraine war started in February 2022 when Russia invaded the smaller country in a desperate bid to stop its estranged neighbour from joining the US-backed North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

Since then, the Eurasian conflict has continued to rage on and peace is nowhere in sight as both the West and Russia have adopted extreme positions.

The West remains determined to exhaust and ultimately defeat Russia at any cost, while Moscow is in no mood to let go until Kyiv agrees to its peace proposals.

UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT-WAR
LONG WAR: Peace between Russia and Ukraine is still nowhere in sight

The historic prisoner swap deal announced by US President Joe Biden on August 1 assumed significance as it came at a time when the decades-old US-Russia rivalry had peaked again,  threatening the existing world order.

The deal was a big face-saver for outgoing US President Biden as he struggled to hold on to his Democratic nomination for a second term after a TV debate fiasco with his rival, Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Former US President Trump promised Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy a swift end to the conflict

Trump, a former US President, had already promised Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that, if elected, he would ensure a swift end to the Eurasian conflict. This might have put some pressure on the Biden administration to showcase the prisoner exchange deal as a diplomatic achievement.

Under the deal with Russia, 24 detainees, including former US Marine Paul Whelan, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, prominent Putin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza and journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, were released.

The conference in Switzerland failed to make any headway as aggressor Russia was not invited

The exchange resulted from years of complicated behind-the-scenes negotiations involving the US, Russia, Belarus and Germany, which had to be cajoled into releasing convicted Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov.

In all, 16 Americans, Russians and Germans were freed from Russia, in exchange for eight Russians held in the United States, Germany and other countries.

Biden rightly described the prisoner exchange as a ‘feat of diplomacy’ and thanked allies Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway and Turkey, who stood with the US throughout the ‘tough and complex negotiations’ to achieve the outcome.

However, the US President’s remarks left manyin the world wondering: if a complex prisoner swap deal like this can be worked out through dialogue, what is stopping global leaders from putting their heads together to find ways to end the Ukraine war, now running into its third year?

It is not that leading world powers have not been trying hard to broker peace in Ukraine. But, for a variety of reasons, their efforts have failed to deliver any tangible results.

The latest such attempt was the Ukraine Peace Summit hosted by Switzerland on June 15 and 16, in which a large number of countries participated.

The conference produced a joint statement signed by 81 countries, yetit failed to make any headway as aggressor Russia was not invited to the conclave. China, an ally of Russia, also did not attend the summit, indicating the two still had suspicions over the West’s motives.

South Asian major India attended the conclave but did not sign the joint statement that focused on three broad areas: safety of nuclear installations under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, free flow of Ukrainian agricultural products to buyer nations, and exchange of prisoners of war.

With no specific action plan on the table, the Switzerland peace summit seemed more of a Western effort to rally international support around victim Ukraine and further isolate invader Russia.

President Putin, who was keeping a tab on the international mobilisation against him, quickly floated a ceasefire formula, urging Ukraine to give up plans to join NATO and pullout its  troops from four regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – that Russia has annexed.

Putin knew well that his peace plan had little chance of finding favour with the US and Europe, but he nevertheless forwarded the proposal to project the image that he too was pushing for peace in Eurasia.

As expected, the United States, Germany, Italy and even Kyiv rejected the Russian president’s ceasefire plan, saying it went against Ukrainian interests and was dictatorial in nature.

Of late, Ukrainian forces have gone on an offensive – aimed at projecting an image of a strong battling nation – which has worried Russian military commanders.

Two days before the Switzerland summit, a G7 conclave in Italy also reviewed the Ukraine war and decided to continue defending Kyiv till a peace formula was arrived at.

The G7, a group of seven rich nations comprising Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US, also approved a $50 billion loan from frozen Russian assets abroad to help Zelenskyy keep up the fight.

Putin described the G7 move as ‘theft’ and threatened retaliatory action, indicating Moscow was prepared for a long haul in the Ukraine war.

On the sidelines of the G7 conclave, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Joe Biden signed a ten-year bilateral security deal, indicating that Washington, too, anticipates a long-drawn-out conflict in Kyiv, despite the various efforts to end it.

Mention must also be made of two attempts to broker peace in the Ukraine war during the initial days of the conflict, when senior officials from both Moscow and Kyiv sat across the table to work out ways to end the war.

L-R top to bottom Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, former US Marine Paul Whelan, journalist Alsu Kurmasheva and prominent Putin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza
Under the prisoner swap deal with Russia, 24 detainees, including (l to r) former US Marine Paul Whelan, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, prominent Putin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza and journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, were released

The first such meeting was held in Belarus, which shares its border with Ukraine, just days after the war broke out in February 2022; the second was held during March that year in Turkey, whose President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was on friendly terms with both Putin and Zelenskyy, and who tried to play the peace-maker. Both chances were lost.  

It appears, then, that while dialogue has succeeded in bringing hard-core rivals on to the same page over the release of key political prisoners, power play has short-changed diplomatic efforts to halt the Eurasian conflict.

Ukraine may have been closer to a peace pact in the initial days of the war but has seemingly been reduced to a pawn in the great game for global dominance between the US and Russia.

If a solution emerges at some point in the future, the will of the Ukrainians, who have suffered immensely and made huge sacrifices in supporting President Zelenskyy all this while, would also matter when it comes to the contours of the peace plan.

Russia is keen to slice up Ukraine which, in turn, wants the four annexed territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, as well as Crimea, taken in 2014, returned.In addition, Kyiv seeks security guarantees from the West and NATO members, in case Ukraine should ever incur Moscow’s wrath again.

The Ukrainians want nothing but a full-scale victory. It remains to be seen if they will settle for anything less.

Amit Agnihotri is a Delhi-based journalist who has worked with several national newspapers and focuses on politics and policy issues